Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat



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Probability distribution for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile15.88911.511
Median18.87816.490
Mean19.40817.938
75% Quartile22.46222.718
Interquartile Range6.57411.207

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.41447.188
231.13140.913
329.92238.644
429.07136.852
528.38935.565
627.82933.829
727.15432.643
826.65131.558
926.27530.497
1025.90129.713
1125.62629.069
1225.33928.366
1325.05727.838
1424.87027.311
1524.57026.737
1624.36426.283
1724.12625.756
1823.88225.223
1923.62324.755
2023.40224.387
2123.21224.034
2222.99323.641
2322.82523.366
2422.63822.968
2522.46322.718
2622.27622.503
2722.12022.177
2821.95721.918
2921.80421.617
3021.64521.286
3121.46320.983
3221.30920.676
3321.18020.434
3421.04720.195
3520.92619.866
3620.77019.604
3720.58419.341
3820.42419.096
3920.28918.895
4020.12718.630
4120.00118.374
4219.87318.183
4319.77118.023
4419.63317.802
4519.52917.602
4619.37217.379
4719.23817.176
4819.13116.910
4918.99516.709
5018.87816.490
5118.75216.291
5218.62816.091
5318.51415.856
5418.41115.631
5518.28315.401
5618.13215.121
5718.04914.955
5817.94114.787
5917.80614.601
6017.67014.357
6117.55814.111
6217.44213.931
6317.33913.761
6417.24013.553
6517.10313.389
6616.96613.221
6716.85813.064
6816.74912.857
6916.64112.643
7016.49112.488
7116.38412.275
7216.25712.103
7316.14611.899
7416.01111.716
7515.88811.511
7615.73411.326
7715.63111.122
7815.44510.933
7915.28910.749
8015.15610.506
8115.02210.275
8214.86210.052
8314.7219.795
8414.5319.576
8514.3629.384
8614.1509.122
8713.9878.846
8813.8148.619
8913.6028.342
9013.3778.027
9113.1147.725
9212.8627.357
9312.6016.952
9412.3076.434
9511.8906.045
9611.5885.575
9711.1734.837
9810.4424.139
999.6153.223


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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