Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep31.49817.09431.2124.46227.54262.901
Sep-Oct60.93031.70449.0607.53643.417138.119
Sep-Nov79.08146.49362.21210.07557.090175.754

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10121.090138.057
20104.311114.761
3092.46099.596
4083.01385.582
5075.45773.623
6067.30661.255
7060.26350.301
8052.47938.990
9042.22926.195

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1170.338197.163
2157.031178.346
3148.589170.956
4142.575164.870
5137.131160.353
6132.312154.052
7128.863149.602
8125.884145.423
9122.959141.228
10121.090138.057
11118.667135.408
12116.815132.465
13114.802130.217
14113.124127.949
15111.241125.437
16109.864123.428
17108.500121.063
18106.820118.633
19105.306116.475
20104.311114.761
21103.095113.094
22101.966111.225
23100.570109.909
2499.209107.976
2597.849106.756
2696.947105.700
2795.765104.082
2894.456102.789
2993.409101.275
3092.46099.596
3191.34598.048
3290.37196.463
3389.28395.203
3488.53493.953
3587.46792.223
3686.62190.829
3785.72789.428
3884.89688.111
3984.07887.023
4083.01385.582
4182.20684.178
4281.22383.131
4380.45582.244
4479.70281.018
4579.13479.909
4678.30478.658
4777.54377.517
4876.71676.015
4976.06674.870
5075.45773.623
5174.70472.484
5273.86971.337
5373.13169.986
5472.29768.683
5571.51667.352
5670.67865.725
5769.72564.757
5868.87063.774
5967.98962.689
6067.30661.255
6166.59659.814
6265.94358.755
6365.37757.762
6464.72756.535
6564.10955.576
6663.27454.591
6762.63653.667
6861.95752.456
6961.04151.205
7060.26350.301
7159.46449.059
7258.72748.059
7357.97146.881
7457.29145.824
7556.61144.648
7655.85343.592
7755.05042.438
7854.18041.369
7953.37840.341
8052.47938.990
8151.69437.716
8250.67336.501
8349.84135.117
8448.85133.956
8547.70732.949
8646.68031.590
8745.61530.187
8845.00129.057
8943.69027.702
9042.22926.195
9141.09524.792
9239.86423.138
9338.46921.382
9436.85719.256
9535.30017.742
9633.42316.012
9731.22813.515
9828.38811.394
9924.4668.966


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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