Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Oct29.43114.61017.8483.07415.87575.218
Oct-Nov47.58329.39931.0005.61329.549112.853
Oct-Dec59.97142.41940.0797.25540.442133.259

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1083.366105.382
2071.26287.258
3062.47175.479
4054.99364.621
5048.60055.389
6042.67845.890
7036.49337.535
8029.86828.983
9022.77619.410

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1117.665151.423
2108.171136.762
3102.801131.005
498.885126.264
595.401122.746
691.500117.838
789.362114.372
886.964111.118
985.399107.852
1083.366105.382
1181.613103.321
1280.534101.030
1379.45799.280
1478.09597.515
1576.99695.561
1675.85193.997
1774.70892.158
1873.33090.268
1972.26388.590
2071.26287.258
2170.28685.962
2269.42784.509
2368.66383.486
2467.85181.985
2566.96781.037
2665.90380.217
2764.97678.961
2864.16377.956
2963.36676.782
3062.47175.479
3161.67574.278
3260.88373.049
3360.18472.071
3459.39171.102
3558.54169.762
3657.89968.682
3757.16767.597
3856.32566.578
3955.63265.735
4054.99364.621
4154.29263.535
4253.67662.725
4353.06562.040
4452.48361.093
4551.86560.236
4651.20759.271
4750.46758.390
4849.74857.232
4949.15756.349
5048.60055.389
5148.00454.511
5247.40553.628
5346.81652.589
5446.13151.587
5545.56350.565
5644.90349.316
5744.41948.573
5843.81847.819
5943.13846.987
6042.67845.890
6141.93944.787
6241.43743.978
6340.79043.219
6440.17942.282
6539.62141.551
6638.81040.800
6738.32640.096
6837.74839.174
6937.16738.223
7036.49337.535
7135.83336.592
7235.23135.834
7334.55834.941
7434.02834.141
7533.51833.251
7632.65032.453
7731.93331.582
7831.14830.775
7930.49030.000
8029.86828.983
8129.25528.025
8228.61427.112
8327.81326.074
8427.21125.204
8526.46124.450
8625.69623.433
8724.92622.385
8824.33321.542
8923.57020.531
9022.77619.410
9121.83118.366
9220.96817.137
9319.77915.834
9418.93514.258
9517.70813.137
9616.29911.857
9714.32310.011
9812.3888.444
9910.1816.650


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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