Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Return to catchment list
Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec12.38813.0199.0801.79310.89331.064
Dec-Jan20.43221.45814.9993.10817.59246.141
Dec-Feb26.35929.74119.7693.96325.67685.496

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.14845.193
2027.28436.171
3024.69631.037
4022.66726.719
5020.82123.294
6019.23819.935
7017.65717.039
8015.83914.019
9013.39810.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.47076.346
239.18864.914
337.24360.843
436.11657.655
534.95255.380
633.93852.330
733.23150.260
832.44548.377
931.67246.543
1031.14845.193
1130.59344.090
1230.07542.889
1329.66941.988
1429.24841.094
1528.85740.120
1628.47439.354
1728.12938.466
1827.84637.569
1927.54336.785
2027.28436.171
2126.96435.581
2226.68834.926
2326.45734.471
2426.15533.809
2525.92533.396
2625.68933.041
2725.43832.502
2825.13332.075
2924.89231.580
3024.69631.037
3124.45230.542
3224.26530.039
3324.06229.643
3423.89629.254
3523.66628.719
3623.46128.293
3723.25127.868
3823.05827.472
3922.84027.146
4022.66726.719
4122.50326.306
4222.31425.999
4322.14925.741
4421.96925.387
4521.78425.068
4621.57324.711
4721.32524.387
4821.16423.963
4921.00123.642
5020.82123.294
5120.63422.978
5220.48222.662
5320.35222.291
5420.17821.935
5520.05221.573
5619.90721.133
5719.72520.872
5819.55020.608
5919.41220.317
6019.23819.935
6119.06819.551
6218.93419.271
6318.80819.007
6418.69318.683
6518.51518.430
6618.31818.170
6718.16717.926
6818.00817.607
6917.80517.278
7017.65717.039
7117.48816.711
7217.30116.447
7317.14116.136
7416.97715.855
7516.81815.542
7616.57315.261
7716.38514.952
7816.19714.664
7916.03514.386
8015.83914.019
8115.63013.670
8215.37313.334
8315.15512.948
8414.95712.621
8514.69812.334
8614.48111.942
8714.24411.532
8814.01511.196
8913.69310.787
9013.39810.322
9113.0999.878
9212.7049.340
9312.4108.748
9412.1357.998
9511.7127.438
9611.2096.763
9710.7495.714
989.8724.729
998.8193.454


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence