Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Product list for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan8.0448.4385.9201.5266.69915.077
Jan-Feb13.97116.72210.6892.47314.78354.432
Jan-Mar19.65454.74316.7923.34523.53473.238

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1020.67629.713
2018.63424.387
3017.07321.286
4015.88018.630
5014.80016.490
6013.82614.357
7012.86912.488
8011.75010.506
9010.2878.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.60547.188
225.05540.913
323.97638.644
423.36536.852
522.75135.565
622.32033.829
721.76732.643
821.33431.558
920.98530.497
1020.67629.713
1120.45229.069
1220.23128.366
1320.03127.838
1419.79227.311
1519.57326.737
1619.36226.283
1719.17825.756
1818.99925.223
1918.82924.755
2018.63424.387
2118.42124.034
2218.26223.641
2318.08223.366
2417.93722.968
2517.80322.718
2617.66822.503
2717.53922.177
2817.40721.918
2917.23821.617
3017.07321.286
3116.96520.983
3216.84720.676
3316.71320.434
3416.59820.195
3516.47719.866
3616.34119.604
3716.21019.341
3816.09919.096
3915.98418.895
4015.88018.630
4115.76518.374
4215.66618.183
4315.54818.023
4415.43717.802
4515.33717.602
4615.22517.379
4715.10117.176
4815.01216.910
4914.92116.709
5014.80016.490
5114.72816.291
5214.62916.091
5314.53215.856
5414.43215.631
5514.31815.401
5614.22815.121
5714.11614.955
5814.02314.787
5913.90014.601
6013.82614.357
6113.72914.111
6213.62213.931
6313.55813.761
6413.46113.553
6513.35613.389
6613.29213.221
6713.18013.064
6813.07812.857
6912.98012.643
7012.86912.488
7112.74812.275
7212.66912.103
7312.55211.899
7412.45811.716
7512.36211.511
7612.26311.326
7712.17011.122
7812.02110.933
7911.84710.749
8011.75010.506
8111.63910.275
8211.50110.052
8311.3679.795
8411.2429.576
8511.1019.384
8610.9329.122
8710.8348.846
8810.6168.619
8910.4488.342
9010.2878.027
9110.0737.725
929.8937.357
939.6936.952
949.4046.434
959.1056.045
968.8265.575
978.5004.837
987.9774.139
997.3043.223


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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