Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov18.06813.15210.0752.51814.44836.245
Nov-Dec30.40122.23218.2844.31125.84267.309
Nov-Jan38.40928.15123.7525.62632.88082.386

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1044.49465.770
2038.71355.012
3034.92748.008
4031.69441.532
5029.04235.996
6026.50530.249
7024.03125.126
8021.10619.776
9017.53213.599

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.56893.073
255.49684.380
352.63580.966
450.90778.155
549.07576.068
647.96173.158
746.70071.102
845.84869.172
945.19367.235
1044.49465.770
1143.68564.547
1242.94763.188
1342.36562.150
1441.88561.102
1541.24959.942
1640.63259.014
1740.14957.922
1839.65756.800
1939.25355.803
2038.71355.012
2138.34454.242
2237.87653.379
2337.52652.771
2437.17851.879
2536.83351.315
2636.44850.828
2736.10650.081
2835.72449.483
2935.24348.784
3034.92748.008
3134.57447.293
3234.25146.561
3333.89445.979
3433.54345.401
3533.14244.602
3632.84343.958
3732.56543.310
3832.25342.701
3931.94242.198
4031.69441.532
4131.41840.883
4231.12140.398
4330.84139.988
4430.62339.421
4530.29738.907
4630.01838.328
4729.75137.800
4829.51537.104
4929.30036.573
5029.04235.996
5128.79735.468
5228.54134.936
5328.26734.308
5428.06833.704
5527.78333.086
5627.52932.330
5727.28531.879
5827.07131.422
5926.77930.917
6026.50530.249
6126.27729.577
6226.03629.084
6325.79628.620
6425.51828.047
6525.30227.598
6625.02327.137
6724.85126.705
6824.57726.137
6924.28725.550
7024.03125.126
7123.77824.542
7223.50724.071
7323.24023.516
7423.00423.017
7522.74922.461
7622.42521.962
7722.18421.415
7821.85120.907
7921.47320.419
8021.10619.776
8120.75019.168
8220.44918.586
8320.06817.923
8419.76517.365
8519.41916.880
8619.09816.224
8718.76415.545
8818.38614.996
8917.90114.336
9017.53213.599
9117.06912.911
9216.59612.096
9316.05111.226
9415.63510.167
9514.9489.408
9614.2638.536
9713.4687.266
9812.3166.177
9911.0444.916


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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