Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec12.3339.0808.2101.79311.39331.064
Dec-Jan20.34114.99913.6773.10818.43146.141
Dec-Feb26.24919.76917.3363.96326.77285.496

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.71945.193
2023.25336.171
3021.00731.037
4019.20826.719
5017.64623.294
6016.19419.935
7014.85617.039
8013.26914.019
9011.10710.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.30976.346
234.20964.914
332.14160.843
431.28357.655
530.11355.380
629.27452.330
728.53650.260
827.87448.377
927.27946.543
1026.71945.193
1126.28544.090
1225.86042.889
1325.48841.988
1425.03641.094
1524.61840.120
1624.33939.354
1724.07438.466
1823.80237.569
1923.48136.785
2023.25336.171
2122.99535.581
2222.80034.926
2322.54434.471
2422.32933.809
2522.11333.396
2621.88133.041
2721.70532.502
2821.41232.075
2921.21531.580
3021.00731.037
3120.80830.542
3220.59030.039
3320.40829.643
3420.22929.254
3520.08528.719
3619.92728.293
3719.73627.868
3819.54727.472
3919.37827.146
4019.20826.719
4119.05726.306
4218.90425.999
4318.76125.741
4418.61125.387
4518.43425.068
4618.22824.711
4718.08424.387
4817.94723.963
4917.79723.642
5017.64623.294
5117.46322.978
5217.29822.662
5317.19122.291
5417.04321.935
5516.93921.573
5616.78521.133
5716.64920.872
5816.51020.608
5916.36020.317
6016.19419.935
6116.06019.551
6215.92219.271
6315.80419.007
6415.68818.683
6515.54218.430
6615.39118.170
6715.25717.926
6815.11017.607
6914.98617.278
7014.85617.039
7114.68716.711
7214.55616.447
7314.40516.136
7414.26615.855
7514.10415.542
7613.90915.261
7713.72514.952
7813.58814.664
7913.43614.386
8013.26914.019
8113.04613.670
8212.85513.334
8312.66412.948
8412.46412.621
8512.26312.334
8612.06111.942
8711.85811.532
8811.61711.196
8911.38210.787
9011.10710.322
9110.8829.878
9210.5999.340
9310.2898.748
9410.0217.998
959.6527.438
969.2486.763
978.8965.714
988.1064.729
997.1563.454


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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