Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat


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Historical and exceedance probability for Snowy Creek at below Granite Flat ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1953+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1994) (GL)
Jan7.9145.27615.0771.5265.98622.563
Jan-Feb13.2138.92654.4322.47310.57437.759
Jan-Mar18.09815.40073.2383.34514.74449.220

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1045.63329.713
2041.60224.387
3038.84421.286
4036.58318.630
5034.46716.490
6032.55114.357
7030.53412.488
8028.26510.506
9025.4398.027

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
158.45947.188
254.12340.913
352.27638.644
450.80636.852
549.62835.565
648.65633.829
747.64332.643
847.00531.558
946.30530.497
1045.63329.713
1145.13329.069
1244.69628.366
1344.26327.838
1443.82627.311
1543.33726.737
1642.90626.283
1742.59125.756
1842.23225.223
1941.89424.755
2041.60224.387
2141.33624.034
2241.08323.641
2340.83623.366
2440.49222.968
2540.24522.718
2640.02522.503
2739.73022.177
2839.48621.918
2939.19621.617
3038.84421.286
3138.59120.983
3238.38820.676
3338.17520.434
3437.93120.195
3537.73519.866
3637.45219.604
3737.25719.341
3837.06219.096
3936.88218.895
4036.58318.630
4136.37818.374
4236.18218.183
4335.96418.023
4435.77417.802
4535.57217.602
4635.33217.379
4735.14217.176
4834.93716.910
4934.71616.709
5034.46716.490
5134.24316.291
5234.04216.091
5333.83115.856
5433.65615.631
5533.47315.401
5633.28615.121
5733.11414.955
5832.91114.787
5932.71014.601
6032.55114.357
6132.37414.111
6232.15213.931
6331.91113.761
6431.71513.553
6531.52513.389
6631.33613.221
6731.12813.064
6830.90612.857
6930.72312.643
7030.53412.488
7130.30112.275
7230.09012.103
7329.88311.899
7429.63211.716
7529.46911.511
7629.26111.326
7728.98511.122
7828.72910.933
7928.49510.749
8028.26510.506
8127.99210.275
8227.78510.052
8327.5429.795
8427.2619.576
8527.0979.384
8626.7989.122
8726.4588.846
8826.1658.619
8925.8208.342
9025.4398.027
9125.1177.725
9224.6897.357
9324.1536.952
9423.6226.434
9523.1266.045
9622.4435.575
9721.4644.837
9820.3934.139
9919.1343.223


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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