Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10111.00998.614
2090.81379.511
3078.31767.378
4068.86256.512
5060.68947.603
6053.05238.828
7045.34231.472
8037.78524.277
9027.87816.524

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1175.606148.055
2155.280132.248
3143.400126.050
4135.722120.953
5130.550117.175
6124.619111.913
7120.042108.203
8116.619104.726
9113.855101.242
10111.00998.614
11107.92296.423
12105.69293.993
13103.47992.141
14101.42190.275
1599.57888.213
1697.24386.567
1795.48984.635
1893.63582.654
1992.32880.900
2090.81379.511
2189.29678.163
2288.06276.654
2386.68975.595
2485.16374.043
2583.81473.066
2682.83072.223
2781.56270.933
2880.63669.904
2979.62768.704
3078.31767.378
3177.15966.158
3276.28864.915
3375.15663.929
3474.25762.954
3573.39061.611
3672.29760.533
3771.22459.453
3870.49058.442
3969.64957.610
4068.86256.512
4167.84255.447
4267.13854.655
4366.51253.987
4465.54453.067
4564.63952.238
4663.77551.307
4763.06950.461
4862.20149.354
4961.49148.513
5060.68947.603
5159.97546.775
5259.09845.945
5358.29344.973
5457.47744.041
5556.70643.094
5655.84641.944
5755.16341.264
5854.33040.576
5953.69739.820
6053.05238.828
6152.12937.838
6251.36737.115
6350.67136.439
6449.99235.610
6549.21734.965
6648.33234.306
6747.56833.690
6846.84432.888
6946.13332.064
7045.34231.472
7144.53930.663
7243.89230.015
7343.06329.256
7442.32128.578
7541.64527.828
7640.86627.159
7740.16426.431
7839.53025.759
7938.55825.117
8037.78524.277
8137.13923.490
8236.31422.742
8335.25521.896
8434.47821.188
8533.45620.577
8632.26319.755
8731.19518.911
8830.04618.233
8928.97917.422
9027.87816.524
9126.76415.688
9225.64514.706
9324.42213.664
9423.20612.401
9521.58811.501
9619.98610.468
9718.0168.969
9815.5187.683
9912.3176.186


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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