Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


Return to catchment list
Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1096.060102.355
2082.34284.872
3071.86773.444
4064.32662.830
5057.26853.716
6050.65644.226
7043.70335.777
8036.48827.057
9027.36917.352

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1130.700146.573
2121.379132.505
3115.530126.979
4110.312122.427
5107.486119.048
6104.804114.333
7102.431111.003
8100.185107.874
998.255104.732
1096.060102.355
1194.363100.371
1292.61598.165
1391.32996.479
1489.92394.777
1588.58292.892
1687.30391.384
1786.16889.608
1884.80487.782
1983.70086.160
2082.34284.872
2181.02383.618
2280.00782.211
2379.05481.220
2477.81779.765
2576.57678.846
2675.62078.050
2774.81976.830
2873.89275.854
2973.03474.712
3071.86773.444
3171.14372.274
3270.37971.076
3369.75470.123
3468.94569.177
3568.30367.867
3667.52966.811
3766.73665.749
3866.11464.750
3965.13263.924
4064.32662.830
4163.58261.763
4262.99960.966
4362.18460.291
4461.42159.358
4560.62558.513
4659.96957.560
4759.38756.690
4858.69955.544
4957.97854.669
5057.26853.716
5156.69952.845
5256.02651.967
5355.39450.932
5454.82749.934
5554.20048.913
5653.60047.664
5752.72146.920
5852.04746.164
5951.45845.330
6050.65644.226
6149.88443.117
6249.37642.301
6348.56341.535
6447.81440.590
6547.16439.850
6646.49339.089
6745.88638.376
6845.26937.441
6944.40036.476
7043.70335.777
7143.07434.818
7242.38334.046
7341.73533.137
7441.16932.321
7540.47931.413
7639.77330.599
7739.03629.710
7838.23128.886
7937.24028.095
8036.48827.057
8135.56626.080
8234.83225.149
8334.22724.091
8433.16323.206
8532.24222.438
8631.41821.407
8730.22820.346
8829.28019.495
8928.55218.477
9027.36917.352
9126.47716.310
9225.42815.090
9324.21813.806
9422.71512.268
9520.92311.185
9619.3969.962
9717.5118.227
9814.9216.786
9911.4655.179


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence