Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.61267.398
2028.95254.706
3024.35846.449
4020.92438.844
5018.16632.409
6015.84125.870
7013.34420.263
8010.98414.768
908.2569.067

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.81799.576
252.05489.335
347.43685.313
444.88882.000
543.13379.541
641.16676.110
739.35373.686
837.74971.410
936.33569.126
1035.61267.398
1134.64965.955
1233.86064.352
1333.20963.127
1432.37961.891
1531.79460.522
1631.12659.427
1730.56158.139
1829.93456.815
1929.35355.639
2028.95254.706
2128.51753.797
2228.00252.779
2327.44452.062
2426.94651.009
2526.42550.345
2625.95249.770
2725.54548.890
2825.13448.186
2924.74847.362
3024.35846.449
3124.05745.607
3223.67744.745
3323.30644.060
3422.99843.381
3522.65742.442
3622.28341.686
3721.93540.926
3821.51240.213
3921.26939.624
4020.92438.844
4120.56838.085
4220.31037.519
4320.00937.041
4419.74636.380
4519.40935.782
4619.10335.109
4718.81734.496
4818.59733.690
4918.37433.076
5018.16632.409
5117.89631.801
5217.67831.189
5317.44430.470
5417.17729.778
5516.92029.073
5616.69528.214
5716.48727.704
5816.27527.188
5916.03626.619
6015.84125.870
6115.64225.120
6215.37524.572
6315.11524.058
6414.84823.427
6514.59822.935
6614.34522.431
6714.06921.961
6813.79321.347
6913.58020.717
7013.34420.263
7113.12919.642
7212.90919.146
7312.63718.564
7412.40718.045
7512.20317.471
7611.98116.959
7711.73216.404
7811.46915.892
7911.23515.404
8010.98414.768
8110.70914.173
8210.49913.611
8310.25512.977
849.97012.451
859.75611.998
869.52311.394
879.28110.778
888.91310.287
898.5929.705
908.2569.067
917.8788.482
927.5527.803
937.1427.096
946.7816.259
956.1945.676
965.7175.024
974.9554.109
984.2663.360
993.3042.535


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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