Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.46121.724
2020.65616.302
3017.67013.487
4015.37211.287
5013.3029.651
6011.6768.141
7010.1316.931
808.5315.745
906.5854.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
144.66744.670
238.02535.565
334.48832.486
432.07930.175
530.68328.509
629.43226.427
728.31125.034
827.27223.777
926.40722.585
1025.46121.724
1124.79221.031
1224.11220.290
1323.59519.736
1422.98819.186
1522.55018.601
1622.11918.150
1721.74717.622
1821.41117.097
1921.05216.648
2020.65616.302
2120.30315.969
2219.99715.590
2319.69215.350
2419.33914.981
2519.03414.758
2618.70614.566
2718.38814.267
2818.15914.033
2917.93113.778
3017.67013.487
3117.36713.229
3217.14612.960
3316.84012.756
3416.60012.564
3516.39412.285
3616.18912.074
3715.96811.858
3815.79111.662
3915.57811.499
4015.37211.287
4115.16211.084
4215.00310.937
4314.81410.809
4414.59810.640
4514.42510.488
4614.18310.314
4713.95910.165
4813.7169.965
4913.4789.812
5013.3029.651
5113.1549.506
5212.9589.363
5312.8209.188
5412.6369.033
5512.4968.861
5612.3218.672
5712.1578.556
5812.0058.438
5911.8318.313
6011.6768.141
6111.5167.979
6211.3407.860
6311.1977.747
6411.0507.613
6510.8797.506
6610.6997.397
6710.5457.296
6810.4207.164
6910.2837.028
7010.1316.931
719.9716.798
729.8266.692
739.6856.567
749.4916.456
759.3186.332
769.1846.222
779.0046.102
788.8355.991
798.6855.884
808.5315.745
818.3565.613
828.2215.488
838.0565.345
847.8765.225
857.6745.121
867.4764.980
877.2734.834
887.0684.716
896.8114.573
906.5854.413
916.3654.262
926.1024.083
935.9063.888
945.5583.648
955.2753.471
964.9033.264
974.5172.952
984.1092.670
993.4142.321


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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