Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.74516.712
209.58012.550
308.44210.331
407.3988.562
506.6047.220
605.8735.960
705.1794.931
804.4153.902
903.4692.718

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
118.86733.305
216.42726.870
315.25024.656
414.53122.978
513.90021.760
613.27620.226
712.81319.193
812.36318.255
912.05617.361
1011.74516.712
1111.50816.187
1211.18415.623
1310.97715.201
1410.73914.780
1510.56214.331
1610.40013.984
1710.14813.576
189.96113.169
199.74212.821
209.58012.550
219.43512.291
229.31011.994
239.20211.805
249.06711.515
258.96111.339
268.85811.188
278.72710.951
288.63710.766
298.54710.563
308.44210.331
318.31310.126
328.2029.911
338.1139.747
347.9989.593
357.9029.369
367.7839.199
377.7009.024
387.5978.866
397.4958.733
407.3988.562
417.3108.396
427.2208.276
437.1498.172
447.0668.033
456.9947.909
466.9247.767
476.8327.644
486.7487.479
496.6867.353
506.6047.220
516.5047.100
526.4396.982
536.3746.837
546.2986.707
556.2336.564
566.1706.406
576.1006.309
586.0136.209
595.9516.104
605.8735.960
615.8135.823
625.7445.723
635.6795.627
645.6085.513
655.5465.422
665.4835.329
675.4135.243
685.3315.130
695.2495.014
705.1794.931
715.1174.816
725.0284.725
734.9544.617
744.8804.521
754.7904.414
764.7104.318
774.6324.214
784.5744.117
794.5044.024
804.4153.902
814.3263.786
824.2243.676
834.1563.550
844.0833.444
853.9853.352
863.8693.226
873.7753.096
883.6762.990
893.5762.862
903.4692.718
913.3492.582
923.2392.419
933.1152.242
942.9862.020
952.8591.858
962.6661.665
972.4341.371
982.1541.104
991.8250.768


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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