Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.7404.246
Median6.6046.471
Mean7.4147.935
75% Quartile9.1589.887
Interquartile Range4.4195.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
120.26829.978
218.22623.825
316.44021.769
415.35320.208
514.52319.123
613.95417.704
713.53016.765
813.11515.929
912.73615.130
1012.34414.553
1111.91414.087
1211.72413.587
1311.42213.217
1411.13512.853
1510.90712.461
1610.66112.156
1710.46911.807
1810.25311.457
1910.07911.156
209.86310.921
219.72410.698
229.58410.453
239.42610.283
249.28110.039
259.1609.887
269.0319.758
278.9149.563
288.7749.409
298.6399.232
308.5509.040
318.4168.866
328.3058.690
338.2268.553
348.1138.419
357.9798.236
367.8788.091
377.7637.948
387.6677.816
397.5857.707
407.4797.566
417.3797.430
427.3037.330
437.2137.247
447.1147.132
457.0257.030
466.9426.916
476.8566.813
486.7556.680
496.6766.579
506.6046.471
516.5366.373
526.4616.276
536.3756.163
546.2946.055
556.2245.946
566.1575.814
576.1005.737
586.0165.659
595.9455.574
605.8755.462
615.7985.352
625.7245.271
635.6495.196
645.5535.104
655.4765.032
665.4034.960
675.3264.892
685.2614.803
695.1904.712
705.1274.647
715.0634.558
724.9894.487
734.9074.404
744.8164.329
754.7394.246
764.6664.172
774.5784.092
784.5104.018
794.4263.946
804.3573.853
814.2843.765
824.2123.681
834.1363.585
844.0343.505
853.9503.435
863.8783.340
873.7913.243
883.6733.163
893.5563.068
903.4602.961
913.3472.860
923.2072.739
933.0682.609
942.9172.448
952.7722.330
962.6082.191
972.4161.981
982.1861.792
991.8701.558


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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