Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile13.33010.981
Median20.52617.834
Mean24.29723.096
75% Quartile31.31629.011
Interquartile Range17.98618.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
180.12198.670
267.50477.570
361.74170.330
458.28764.880
554.16760.947
651.45156.037
748.89852.757
847.16949.805
945.56247.014
1044.12245.003
1142.69043.388
1241.39441.666
1340.15140.382
1439.35239.111
1538.42337.762
1637.75736.725
1736.84535.515
1836.03634.315
1935.38433.292
2034.58532.503
2133.98131.749
2233.21930.892
2332.62130.349
2431.93029.518
2531.32529.017
2630.75328.586
2730.12227.916
2829.47827.395
2929.00626.825
3028.42026.177
3128.05525.607
3227.55225.012
3327.13724.560
3426.67524.139
3526.28323.525
3625.80423.062
3725.46422.589
3825.11022.163
3924.74021.806
4024.31121.347
4123.95920.906
4223.60820.588
4323.08620.312
4422.61919.947
4522.24619.620
4621.87619.248
4721.51318.928
4821.20018.501
4920.85818.175
5020.52617.834
5120.23417.525
5219.99217.223
5319.67116.854
5419.28716.527
5519.00016.166
5618.68915.770
5718.38215.528
5818.07015.281
5917.80315.020
6017.54214.664
6117.28814.330
6216.96514.084
6316.73913.850
6416.46113.574
6516.15713.356
6615.85513.133
6715.60412.926
6815.29512.657
6915.02012.382
7014.75012.184
7114.48311.916
7214.17611.701
7313.87411.450
7413.57411.227
7513.32510.980
7613.06010.760
7712.74010.521
7812.43110.301
7912.15610.090
8011.8589.815
8111.5689.556
8211.2829.311
8310.9849.032
8410.7288.799
8510.3888.597
8610.0448.325
879.6978.044
889.3697.818
899.0517.545
908.6237.242
918.1806.958
927.8446.621
937.3646.259
946.9615.814
956.3515.492
965.8595.115
975.2114.555
984.3714.056
993.4093.451


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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