Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile24.36018.987
Median36.35431.938
Mean40.02938.496
75% Quartile52.45151.463
Interquartile Range28.09132.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1106.629125.385
295.875108.643
389.428102.172
483.57396.903
580.09193.033
676.64987.699
774.02883.985
871.88980.541
969.95677.132
1068.28574.588
1166.40772.488
1264.90970.181
1363.77868.439
1462.67166.700
1561.66364.796
1660.69363.291
1759.79361.540
1858.84659.765
1958.02658.210
2056.84856.989
2156.05055.814
2255.22054.512
2354.22753.604
2453.33452.286
2552.46151.463
2651.60950.757
2750.77149.685
2850.09248.837
2949.34047.855
3048.48146.779
3147.86245.800
3247.15644.809
3346.32244.031
3445.78843.266
3545.25842.222
3644.42141.391
3743.87540.565
3843.28739.799
3942.58239.172
4041.97738.352
4141.45737.562
4240.92336.979
4340.31536.490
4439.57235.821
4538.94235.221
4638.28134.553
4737.82633.949
4837.41833.165
4936.84332.574
5036.35431.938
5135.72631.364
5235.14630.791
5334.64530.124
5434.32229.489
5533.81228.848
5633.30528.075
5732.92127.621
5832.44427.163
5931.90326.663
6031.44526.010
6130.92025.361
6230.55724.890
6330.18124.452
6429.68423.916
6529.26523.501
6628.79823.078
6728.26322.685
6827.79922.173
6927.27721.650
7026.77721.275
7126.19420.764
7225.76920.357
7325.25719.880
7424.77019.455
7524.35618.986
7623.80218.569
7723.32918.115
7822.94717.697
7922.33517.298
8021.71316.777
8121.12716.289
8220.45915.825
8319.82415.300
8419.10814.862
8518.63014.483
8617.92213.973
8717.24913.448
8816.74213.025
8916.22312.519
9015.51011.957
9114.85311.432
9214.08910.812
9313.14310.150
9412.4099.342
9511.5368.760
9610.4238.085
979.1777.091
987.7036.220
995.2475.180


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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