Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.24427.829
Median57.46447.603
Mean62.96253.337
75% Quartile79.97073.066
Interquartile Range40.72645.236

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.601148.055
2149.077132.248
3138.101126.050
4130.472120.953
5124.724117.175
6119.316111.913
7114.869108.203
8111.975104.726
9108.954101.242
10106.30198.614
11103.11396.423
12101.08293.993
1398.82492.141
1496.72290.275
1595.13188.213
1692.86986.567
1791.01384.635
1889.32282.654
1988.08980.900
2086.59179.511
2185.25478.163
2284.11676.654
2382.59775.595
2481.08674.043
2580.01373.066
2678.72972.223
2777.71470.933
2876.68669.904
2975.74168.704
3074.57567.378
3173.48466.158
3272.56064.915
3371.40363.929
3470.71862.954
3569.71661.611
3668.73960.533
3767.70459.453
3866.86958.442
3966.16657.610
4065.34456.512
4164.50555.447
4263.71654.655
4363.06153.987
4462.11953.067
4561.36452.238
4660.49551.307
4759.81950.461
4859.01249.354
4958.34348.513
5057.46447.603
5156.69346.775
5255.97945.945
5355.20944.973
5454.37244.041
5553.64043.094
5652.82641.944
5752.19641.264
5851.49940.576
5950.77139.820
6050.05038.828
6149.31637.838
6248.57637.115
6347.87336.439
6447.27135.610
6546.44334.965
6645.58934.306
6744.97433.690
6844.17432.888
6943.54032.064
7042.87931.472
7142.05630.663
7241.35130.015
7340.69929.256
7439.87828.578
7539.23827.828
7638.53027.159
7737.83126.431
7837.01825.759
7936.15125.117
8035.56024.277
8134.92923.490
8234.12522.742
8333.12921.896
8432.33221.188
8531.28020.577
8630.29919.755
8729.24118.911
8828.03018.233
8927.06617.422
9026.00816.524
9124.96615.688
9224.01414.706
9322.76813.664
9421.51212.401
9520.10611.501
9618.50910.468
9716.6198.969
9814.1827.683
9911.1666.186


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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