Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile19.33817.472
Median27.68332.409
Mean30.32535.788
75% Quartile38.75450.345
Interquartile Range19.41632.873

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
176.74099.576
269.08089.335
364.39285.313
460.92182.000
558.76779.541
656.04676.110
753.99773.686
852.52371.410
951.27269.126
1050.01367.398
1148.79065.955
1247.74564.352
1346.91863.127
1446.11661.891
1545.32460.522
1644.61459.427
1743.79358.139
1843.18356.815
1942.60755.639
2041.91254.706
2141.22253.797
2240.57252.779
2339.90852.062
2439.34651.009
2538.75550.345
2638.15049.770
2737.53048.890
2836.98248.186
2936.52547.362
3036.10346.449
3135.48645.607
3235.07444.745
3334.64044.060
3434.22543.381
3533.62142.442
3633.19641.686
3732.85740.926
3832.34440.213
3931.95239.624
4031.52338.844
4130.94138.085
4230.52937.519
4330.17237.041
4429.81736.380
4529.45035.782
4629.01935.109
4728.61734.496
4828.32133.690
4928.03133.076
5027.68332.409
5127.41131.801
5227.09131.189
5326.79530.470
5426.51929.778
5526.15929.073
5625.81428.214
5725.46327.704
5825.05127.188
5924.77626.619
6024.40525.870
6124.11325.120
6223.73824.572
6323.45824.058
6423.15423.427
6522.83322.935
6622.47722.431
6722.16321.961
6821.83421.347
6921.46720.717
7021.07220.263
7120.74319.642
7220.36319.146
7319.93718.564
7419.61718.045
7519.33617.471
7619.05416.959
7718.73416.404
7818.44115.892
7918.10115.404
8017.75714.768
8117.42714.173
8217.03113.611
8316.66312.977
8416.32412.451
8515.93911.998
8615.51511.394
8715.06610.778
8814.69810.287
8914.1859.705
9013.6649.067
9113.0008.482
9212.5187.803
9311.9887.096
9411.4456.259
9510.7695.676
969.9575.024
979.0094.109
987.8743.360
996.4262.535


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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