Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.2373.573
Median4.5305.635
Mean4.9736.818
75% Quartile6.2768.779
Interquartile Range3.0395.206

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.18523.270
211.64819.607
310.77918.243
410.15617.157
59.71416.373
69.33515.314
79.00914.592
88.68813.933
98.42813.291
108.16012.819
117.94412.434
127.77012.015
137.60111.702
147.44111.391
157.32611.055
167.21610.791
177.07510.486
186.94810.180
196.8539.914
206.7439.706
216.6569.507
226.5659.288
236.4719.136
246.3818.916
256.2798.779
266.1708.662
276.0718.485
285.9828.345
295.9128.185
305.8298.009
315.7587.849
325.6587.689
335.5967.563
345.5287.439
355.4557.271
365.4007.138
375.3427.005
385.2726.883
395.2146.783
405.1446.652
415.0686.526
424.9946.433
434.9206.356
444.8526.249
454.8016.154
464.7526.048
474.6975.953
484.6385.829
494.5705.735
504.5305.635
514.4775.544
524.4175.453
534.3625.348
544.3115.247
554.2525.146
564.2065.024
574.1504.952
584.0904.879
594.0394.800
603.9814.697
613.9254.594
623.8734.519
633.8204.449
643.7734.364
653.7154.298
663.6804.230
673.6264.168
683.5784.086
693.5344.002
703.4863.942
713.4373.860
723.3833.794
733.3463.717
743.3003.649
753.2363.573
763.1793.505
773.1223.431
783.0553.363
792.9993.298
802.9363.212
812.8743.132
822.8033.055
832.7472.968
842.6802.896
852.6032.832
862.5282.747
872.4732.659
882.4192.587
892.3272.502
902.2582.406
912.1752.316
922.0912.208
931.9832.093
941.8761.951
951.7601.847
961.6161.726
971.4501.545
981.2691.383
990.9961.185


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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