Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.0194.246
Median4.2626.471
Mean4.8257.935
75% Quartile5.9749.887
Interquartile Range2.9555.641

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.72429.978
212.19023.825
310.99021.769
410.28620.208
59.67219.123
69.31317.704
79.00316.765
88.71915.929
98.42215.130
108.16514.553
117.92214.087
127.71013.587
137.52013.217
147.36112.853
157.17712.461
167.03512.156
176.88911.807
186.71611.457
196.58811.156
206.45310.921
216.35310.698
226.24010.453
236.15810.283
246.07410.039
255.9759.887
265.9119.758
275.8289.563
285.7669.409
295.6929.232
305.5909.040
315.5258.866
325.4458.690
335.3628.553
345.2848.419
355.2038.236
365.1468.091
375.0677.948
385.0087.816
394.9157.707
404.8437.566
414.7787.430
424.7137.330
434.6577.247
444.5917.132
454.5217.030
464.4716.916
474.4206.813
484.3586.680
494.3086.579
504.2626.471
514.2166.373
524.1666.276
534.1186.163
544.0756.055
554.0215.946
563.9795.814
573.9275.737
583.8765.659
593.8175.574
603.7595.462
613.7095.352
623.6515.271
633.6015.196
643.5555.104
653.5095.032
663.4514.960
673.3954.892
683.3514.803
693.3044.712
703.2554.647
713.2154.558
723.1624.487
733.1184.404
743.0644.329
753.0184.246
762.9624.172
772.9154.092
782.8724.018
792.8223.946
802.7713.853
812.7133.765
822.6443.681
832.5783.585
842.5293.505
852.4683.435
862.4193.340
872.3473.243
882.2783.163
892.1993.068
902.1302.961
912.0362.860
921.9682.739
931.8742.609
941.7932.448
951.6652.330
961.5612.191
971.4241.981
981.2531.792
991.0451.558


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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