Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile23.66418.987
Median35.46531.938
Mean39.19038.496
75% Quartile51.44651.463
Interquartile Range27.78332.476

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.266125.385
294.413108.643
388.111102.172
482.26396.903
578.81793.033
675.54887.699
772.81983.985
870.76580.541
968.72577.132
1067.09974.588
1165.30172.488
1263.65470.181
1362.56668.439
1461.54366.700
1560.59564.796
1659.52263.291
1758.62661.540
1857.72359.765
1956.92258.210
2055.84056.989
2155.00455.814
2254.21754.512
2353.20053.604
2452.37852.286
2551.45551.463
2650.65650.757
2749.78149.685
2849.05348.837
2948.27347.855
3047.52146.779
3146.89345.800
3246.17544.809
3345.34144.031
3444.80643.266
3544.29742.222
3643.46841.391
3742.92340.565
3842.40339.799
3941.68739.172
4041.10238.352
4140.54637.562
4240.02536.979
4339.44436.490
4438.71335.821
4538.12235.221
4637.42734.553
4736.98733.949
4836.53033.165
4936.01832.574
5035.46531.938
5134.90631.364
5234.30730.791
5333.82830.124
5433.49629.489
5533.00928.848
5632.53928.075
5732.09927.621
5831.65627.163
5931.13026.663
6030.65526.010
6130.13525.361
6229.79224.890
6329.45024.452
6428.92523.916
6528.55823.501
6628.11523.078
6727.51022.685
6827.08622.173
6926.57421.650
7026.06521.275
7125.54320.764
7225.06420.357
7324.57019.880
7424.13919.455
7523.65918.986
7623.18818.569
7722.73418.115
7822.28917.697
7921.71617.298
8021.14316.777
8120.51916.289
8219.88915.825
8319.31115.300
8418.54414.862
8518.06614.483
8617.40713.973
8716.75713.448
8816.26413.025
8915.75312.519
9015.03411.957
9114.47511.432
9213.67010.812
9312.71610.150
9412.0029.342
9511.1698.760
9610.0258.085
978.8457.091
987.3196.220
994.9705.180


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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