Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan 2009 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.7854.414
Median7.8937.220
Mean8.6108.791
75% Quartile10.64011.337
Interquartile Range4.8556.923

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.82633.305
218.96126.870
317.71224.656
416.99222.978
516.24821.760
615.54620.226
715.03819.193
814.53918.255
914.17417.361
1013.86616.712
1113.47016.187
1213.18015.623
1312.92415.201
1412.66414.780
1512.43714.331
1612.20613.984
1711.95313.576
1811.72813.169
1911.55012.821
2011.35412.550
2111.19412.291
2211.04311.994
2310.92511.805
2410.77711.515
2510.64011.339
2610.50111.188
2710.34510.951
2810.23310.766
2910.11510.563
309.99910.331
319.89410.126
329.7629.911
339.6299.747
349.4989.593
359.3759.369
369.2769.199
379.1779.024
389.0688.866
398.9428.733
408.8198.562
418.7178.396
428.6238.276
438.5468.172
448.4478.033
458.3707.909
468.2827.767
478.1807.644
488.0727.479
497.9827.353
507.8937.220
517.7937.100
527.7236.982
537.6386.837
547.5506.707
557.4646.564
567.3856.406
577.3156.309
587.2476.209
597.1326.104
607.0355.960
616.9505.823
626.8745.723
636.8175.627
646.7315.513
656.6625.422
666.5895.329
676.4815.243
686.4095.130
696.3215.014
706.2434.931
716.1594.816
726.0714.725
735.9774.617
745.8794.521
755.7844.414
765.6964.318
775.6154.214
785.5324.117
795.4354.024
805.3343.902
815.2433.786
825.1223.676
835.0163.550
844.9033.444
854.7963.352
864.7033.226
874.5873.096
884.4722.990
894.3352.862
904.2142.718
914.1232.582
923.9692.419
933.8212.242
943.6832.020
953.5361.858
963.2821.665
973.0001.371
982.7021.104
992.3220.768


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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