Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.1104.414
Median5.6927.220
Mean6.2958.791
75% Quartile7.80611.337
Interquartile Range3.6966.923

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
116.50633.305
214.47926.870
313.63724.656
412.86122.978
512.21721.760
611.67120.226
711.22219.193
810.85318.255
910.58917.361
1010.34616.712
1110.14816.187
129.86715.623
139.60115.201
149.39414.780
159.22714.331
169.09613.984
178.93813.576
188.70113.169
198.54112.821
208.39012.550
218.23012.291
228.10511.994
237.99611.805
247.90211.515
257.80811.339
267.71311.188
277.61610.951
287.52110.766
297.41410.563
307.32010.331
317.23510.126
327.1329.911
337.0359.747
346.9519.593
356.8469.369
366.7659.199
376.6789.024
386.5898.866
396.4968.733
406.4148.562
416.3408.396
426.2658.276
436.1928.172
446.1278.033
456.0527.909
465.9837.767
475.9097.644
485.8307.479
495.7677.353
505.6927.220
515.6337.100
525.5646.982
535.4916.837
545.4446.707
555.3876.564
565.3236.406
575.2646.309
585.1996.209
595.1296.104
605.0705.960
615.0175.823
624.9665.723
634.8895.627
644.8275.513
654.7645.422
664.6985.329
674.6355.243
684.5635.130
694.4985.014
704.4434.931
714.3864.816
724.3324.725
734.2634.617
744.1914.521
754.1104.414
764.0334.318
773.9694.214
783.9174.117
793.8414.024
803.7583.902
813.6993.786
823.6323.676
833.5653.550
843.4953.444
853.4073.352
863.3043.226
873.2093.096
883.1382.990
893.0322.862
902.9432.718
912.8312.582
922.7352.419
932.6282.242
942.5202.020
952.3821.858
962.2281.665
972.0181.371
981.7801.104
991.4830.768


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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