Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Probability distribution for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.3964.414
Median8.6377.220
Mean9.4198.791
75% Quartile11.60611.337
Interquartile Range5.2116.923

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.67133.305
220.61426.870
319.19224.656
418.40222.978
517.59421.760
616.83620.226
716.27619.193
815.78218.255
915.40917.361
1015.04616.712
1114.65816.187
1214.35315.623
1314.04615.201
1413.78314.780
1513.53014.331
1613.25513.984
1713.01013.576
1812.77913.169
1912.59512.821
2012.39812.550
2112.20712.291
2212.10011.994
2311.96111.805
2411.81411.515
2511.60711.339
2611.44411.188
2711.31810.951
2811.18810.766
2911.05110.563
3010.90410.331
3110.79710.126
3210.6569.911
3310.5319.747
3410.4109.593
3510.2809.369
3610.1459.199
3710.0219.024
389.9238.866
399.7988.733
409.6898.562
419.5418.396
429.4408.276
439.3568.172
449.2888.033
459.1707.909
469.0847.767
478.9707.644
488.8777.479
498.7637.353
508.6377.220
518.5527.100
528.4706.982
538.3926.837
548.2926.707
558.2066.564
568.1266.406
578.0306.309
587.9556.209
597.8506.104
607.7435.960
617.6545.823
627.5575.723
637.4795.627
647.3915.513
657.3075.422
667.2325.329
677.1395.243
687.0385.130
696.9525.014
706.8544.931
716.7644.816
726.7004.725
736.6024.617
746.4894.521
756.3954.414
766.2734.318
776.1864.214
786.0924.117
795.9974.024
805.8963.902
815.7703.786
825.6413.676
835.5223.550
845.4033.444
855.2823.352
865.1853.226
875.0583.096
884.9312.990
894.8012.862
904.6592.718
914.5592.582
924.4002.419
934.2662.242
944.0762.020
953.9031.858
963.6901.665
973.3671.371
983.0281.104
992.6470.768


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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