Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep21.15715.8252.88218.34839.890
Sep-Oct39.07825.3144.45329.81593.412
Sep-Nov50.05730.2895.56538.682126.091

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1066.45890.604
2055.08774.301
3047.15363.679
4041.66453.865
5036.47645.512
6032.08436.934
7027.77929.450
8022.88821.935
9017.78213.859

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
197.635131.913
289.972118.767
384.138113.603
480.255109.350
576.439106.193
673.681101.789
771.30198.678
869.79595.756
968.06292.822
1066.45890.604
1164.88288.751
1263.52686.692
1362.31885.119
1461.33983.532
1560.17181.774
1658.99280.368
1758.00778.713
1856.79077.011
1956.02775.500
2055.08774.301
2154.10773.133
2253.34871.824
2352.38670.902
2451.47369.548
2550.68968.694
2650.09267.954
2749.35266.821
2848.55565.915
2947.96964.855
3047.15363.679
3146.57462.594
3246.07861.484
3345.52860.601
3445.07359.725
3544.54358.514
3643.86857.538
3743.28756.557
3842.77855.635
3942.16954.873
4041.66453.865
4141.16552.883
4240.59052.150
4340.04951.530
4439.52950.673
4538.84349.898
4638.31249.025
4737.81148.227
4837.37747.179
4936.96946.381
5036.47645.512
5136.00944.719
5235.62443.920
5335.17342.980
5434.80342.075
5534.26641.151
5633.82640.023
5733.46839.353
5833.11538.672
5932.55837.923
6032.08436.934
6131.56535.941
6231.10035.214
6330.60834.532
6430.17433.692
6529.66933.035
6629.32532.363
6728.97931.733
6828.58930.910
6928.16430.062
7027.77929.450
7127.20328.613
7226.75327.940
7326.29827.150
7425.84226.444
7525.42625.660
7624.99024.959
7724.50624.196
7823.97323.491
7923.37622.817
8022.88821.935
8122.41821.107
8221.84220.322
8321.24219.434
8420.73018.693
8520.30618.053
8619.87517.196
8719.50516.317
8818.95515.615
8918.40514.779
9017.78213.859
9117.09013.009
9216.18412.019
9315.23210.980
9414.2219.742
9513.3638.874
9612.5327.897
9711.5586.515
9810.4085.371
998.4244.099


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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