Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1996) (GL)
Aug19.10227.01535.5952.21018.45038.761
Aug-Sep40.38647.17551.4215.09237.81180.611
Aug-Oct58.50859.28860.9106.66350.289129.271

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10114.675102.355
20100.32684.872
3089.61673.444
4080.89262.830
5073.04153.716
6065.19344.226
7058.03635.777
8049.45027.057
9038.07317.352

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1152.734146.573
2142.911132.505
3136.333126.979
4131.297122.427
5127.675119.048
6124.437114.333
7121.752111.003
8119.227107.874
9116.462104.732
10114.675102.355
11112.400100.371
12110.98198.165
13109.41596.479
14108.06094.777
15106.78092.892
16105.47691.384
17104.14189.608
18102.71587.782
19101.62386.160
20100.32684.872
2198.88783.618
2297.73382.211
2396.60181.220
2495.59379.765
2594.41078.846
2693.57178.050
2792.65076.830
2891.68775.854
2990.67174.712
3089.61673.444
3188.82472.274
3287.85271.076
3386.80470.123
3485.91069.177
3585.17667.867
3684.44066.811
3783.64165.749
3882.80764.750
3981.94363.924
4080.89262.830
4180.21461.763
4279.41960.966
4378.68960.291
4477.98459.358
4577.11058.513
4676.36457.560
4775.48556.690
4874.76955.544
4973.93354.669
5073.04153.716
5171.96752.845
5271.34051.967
5370.63250.932
5469.97149.934
5569.19248.913
5668.27747.664
5767.43346.920
5866.71046.164
5965.89545.330
6065.19344.226
6164.58143.117
6263.98442.301
6363.33741.535
6462.62740.590
6561.71439.850
6660.90539.089
6760.02738.376
6859.32537.441
6958.69336.476
7058.03635.777
7157.23434.818
7256.43234.046
7355.59433.137
7454.93432.321
7554.07731.413
7653.22730.599
7752.34429.710
7851.30028.886
7950.62828.095
8049.45027.057
8148.65426.080
8247.51625.149
8346.43124.091
8445.66723.206
8544.33522.438
8643.18921.407
8741.78320.346
8840.71619.495
8939.39018.477
9038.07317.352
9136.89416.310
9235.34715.090
9334.26513.806
9432.71912.268
9530.27011.185
9628.5169.962
9725.6488.227
9821.7286.786
9918.1115.179


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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