Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep21.28420.16015.8252.88219.36139.890
Sep-Oct39.40632.27325.3144.45331.83993.412
Sep-Nov50.53140.77730.2895.56541.139126.091

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10111.32890.604
2096.83374.301
3087.29063.679
4078.90353.865
5071.42045.512
6064.18836.934
7056.73929.450
8049.16221.935
9038.89313.859

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1153.863131.913
2141.297118.767
3134.294113.603
4129.647109.350
5125.365106.193
6121.205101.789
7118.32398.678
8116.07595.756
9113.96192.822
10111.32890.604
11109.56988.751
12107.49886.692
13105.84785.119
14104.27383.532
15102.88881.774
16101.84180.368
17100.42878.713
1899.41977.011
1998.08375.500
2096.83374.301
2195.91473.133
2294.92871.824
2393.82870.902
2492.90969.548
2591.83468.694
2690.72467.954
2789.92766.821
2889.08865.915
2988.13464.855
3087.29063.679
3186.40562.594
3285.56961.484
3384.62660.601
3484.00059.725
3583.17958.514
3682.29357.538
3781.57756.557
3880.72055.635
3979.60354.873
4078.90353.865
4178.10952.883
4277.28552.150
4376.60951.530
4475.91450.673
4575.12849.898
4674.55049.025
4773.80348.227
4873.00747.179
4972.29546.381
5071.42045.512
5170.70644.719
5269.77443.920
5369.09242.980
5468.57242.075
5567.82441.151
5667.14840.023
5766.58739.353
5865.75038.672
5965.03037.923
6064.18836.934
6163.53035.941
6262.81635.214
6361.95334.532
6461.42333.692
6560.86333.035
6660.04232.363
6759.25631.733
6858.43830.910
6957.79830.062
7056.73929.450
7156.00628.613
7255.29427.940
7354.62527.150
7453.99126.444
7553.16525.660
7652.47424.959
7751.76724.196
7850.89123.491
7950.08122.817
8049.16221.935
8148.26321.107
8247.46420.322
8346.38919.434
8445.27818.693
8544.23118.053
8643.37817.196
8742.41416.317
8841.30815.615
8940.30914.779
9038.89313.859
9137.19413.009
9236.30612.019
9335.08310.980
9433.3589.742
9531.9088.874
9630.0397.897
9728.1266.515
9825.5685.371
9921.1504.099


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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