Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Nov11.1258.5054.9751.1129.30030.369
Nov-Dec18.17513.3979.1561.67516.93941.487
Nov-Jan22.58315.97711.1932.06320.94656.782

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.15840.701
2023.26633.178
3020.46228.272
4018.16823.736
5016.13619.875
6014.53015.920
7012.83512.492
8010.8399.097
908.5265.549

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
139.34059.744
235.91053.685
333.79851.305
432.29649.344
530.60147.889
629.55845.858
728.91344.424
828.31343.077
927.73741.724
1027.15840.701
1126.77539.847
1226.32938.897
1325.83038.171
1425.42137.439
1524.96336.628
1624.61135.979
1724.23835.215
1823.95234.429
1923.58633.732
2023.26633.178
2122.94832.639
2222.63332.035
2322.38631.609
2422.07530.984
2521.76130.589
2621.45230.248
2721.22729.724
2820.91529.305
2920.70528.815
3020.46228.272
3120.21127.771
3219.97627.258
3319.67626.850
3419.48426.445
3519.27325.885
3619.05225.434
3718.79724.981
3818.55324.554
3918.33524.202
4018.16823.736
4117.97023.282
4217.81922.943
4317.60022.657
4417.40122.261
4517.20021.902
4616.98121.499
4716.72621.130
4816.51320.646
4916.32220.277
5016.13619.875
5115.97119.509
5215.81519.140
5315.69318.706
5415.51918.288
5515.34817.862
5615.14817.342
5714.98617.033
5814.86816.720
5914.69316.375
6014.53015.920
6114.37515.463
6214.19315.129
6314.02014.816
6413.84314.431
6513.69614.130
6613.53413.822
6713.37413.534
6813.19313.158
6913.00112.771
7012.83512.492
7112.66612.110
7212.50011.805
7312.31611.446
7412.12611.126
7511.88710.771
7611.68210.455
7711.49910.111
7811.3089.795
7911.0929.492
8010.8399.097
8110.6628.728
8210.4558.379
8310.2517.985
8410.0437.657
859.8487.375
869.5716.999
879.2916.615
889.0866.309
898.7765.946
908.5265.549
918.2285.184
927.8684.762
937.6414.322
947.2603.802
956.8343.440
966.4733.036
976.0082.472
985.3292.012
994.3471.507


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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