Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2008) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Apr2.5782.2492.6171.1662.8239.705
Apr-May6.3085.4725.6872.3025.68421.543
Apr-Jun12.62414.16815.8033.55911.26440.930

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.84321.724
2014.34016.302
3012.20413.487
4010.55611.287
509.1309.651
607.9598.141
706.8486.931
805.7435.745
904.3604.413

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.31944.670
226.89835.565
324.38132.486
422.85530.175
521.75328.509
620.68726.427
719.99325.034
819.11623.777
918.48122.585
1017.84321.724
1117.39621.031
1216.91720.290
1316.49419.736
1416.08219.186
1515.76318.601
1615.42718.150
1715.18317.622
1814.89817.097
1914.57216.648
2014.34016.302
2114.10915.969
2213.80215.590
2313.56515.350
2413.31714.981
2513.11314.758
2612.94714.566
2712.75014.267
2812.58114.033
2912.40713.778
3012.20413.487
3112.02113.229
3211.79012.960
3311.64512.756
3411.45512.564
3511.25912.285
3611.10112.074
3710.99011.858
3810.84611.662
3910.69911.499
4010.55611.287
4110.43411.084
4210.28810.937
4310.13610.809
449.98410.640
459.84410.488
469.70610.314
479.57410.165
489.4299.965
499.2649.812
509.1309.651
519.0199.506
528.8729.363
538.7419.188
548.6289.033
558.5118.861
568.4008.672
578.2938.556
588.1888.438
598.0988.313
607.9598.141
617.8437.979
627.7217.860
637.6127.747
647.4907.613
657.3717.506
667.2707.397
677.1707.296
687.0647.164
696.9567.028
706.8486.931
716.7296.798
726.6256.692
736.5256.567
746.3956.456
756.2936.332
766.1836.222
776.0826.102
785.9815.991
795.8685.884
805.7435.745
815.6305.613
825.5165.488
835.4005.345
845.2885.225
855.1285.121
865.0104.980
874.8714.834
884.6744.716
894.5214.573
904.3604.413
914.2044.262
924.0594.083
933.8263.888
943.6543.648
953.5043.471
963.2173.264
972.9332.952
982.6132.670
992.1502.321


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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