Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
May3.7293.2233.0711.9932.86119.677
May-Jun10.04611.91913.1873.8068.44130.268
May-Jul24.22528.838NA6.06320.70994.878

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1047.48745.003
2037.36532.503
3030.80126.177
4026.35721.347
5022.28117.834
6019.06814.664
7016.13412.184
8013.0359.815
909.4207.242

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
185.08798.670
271.35677.570
365.90370.330
462.29064.880
558.06360.947
655.17756.037
752.45452.757
850.65649.805
949.07347.014
1047.48745.003
1145.75343.388
1244.53441.666
1343.28640.382
1442.33839.111
1541.36237.762
1640.63636.725
1739.70435.515
1838.95334.315
1938.15133.292
2037.36532.503
2136.76431.749
2235.99930.892
2335.22530.349
2434.52229.518
2533.82429.017
2633.21628.586
2732.59627.916
2831.88127.395
2931.27826.825
3030.80126.177
3130.29925.607
3229.84825.012
3329.40024.560
3428.96024.139
3528.45723.525
3627.92623.062
3727.57522.589
3827.12822.163
3926.77921.806
4026.35721.347
4125.96920.906
4225.52220.588
4325.05020.312
4424.57519.947
4524.13819.620
4623.74019.248
4723.34018.928
4823.10218.501
4922.69218.175
5022.28117.834
5121.96417.525
5221.67517.223
5321.38916.854
5420.96516.527
5520.62516.166
5620.29615.770
5719.96915.528
5819.69515.281
5919.33315.020
6019.06814.664
6118.76314.330
6218.44414.084
6318.19113.850
6417.89913.574
6517.61713.356
6617.19813.133
6716.98312.926
6816.66612.657
6916.41512.382
7016.13412.184
7115.79711.916
7215.49611.701
7315.13811.450
7414.79611.227
7514.55910.980
7614.23710.760
7713.92610.521
7813.56510.301
7913.28310.090
8013.0359.815
8112.6759.556
8212.3699.311
8312.0389.032
8411.7208.799
8511.3488.597
8611.0138.325
8710.5968.044
8810.3017.818
899.9047.545
909.4207.242
918.9916.958
928.5746.621
938.1056.259
947.6985.814
957.0025.492
966.5705.115
975.8204.555
984.8834.056
993.8473.451


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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