Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2011) (GL)
Jan4.4082.5802.0360.4284.0087.078
Jan-Feb7.4104.6853.0350.5728.98331.320
Jan-Mar10.2877.5744.6291.06714.10342.632

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.78916.712
208.79512.550
307.68710.331
406.7318.562
505.9967.220
605.3395.960
704.6824.931
803.9783.902
903.1192.718

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
117.20033.305
215.08926.870
314.12524.656
413.36422.978
512.78521.760
612.22020.226
711.74419.193
811.32818.255
911.06617.361
1010.78916.712
1110.60016.187
1210.32315.623
1310.06615.201
149.83814.780
159.66714.331
169.52313.984
179.32613.576
189.10913.169
198.93712.821
208.79512.550
218.63312.291
228.48811.994
238.41111.805
248.28811.515
258.17511.339
268.09511.188
277.99910.951
287.86710.766
297.78610.563
307.68710.331
317.58210.126
327.4799.911
337.3919.747
347.2919.593
357.1929.369
367.1039.199
377.0159.024
386.9218.866
396.8238.733
406.7318.562
416.6578.396
426.5878.276
436.5108.172
446.4378.033
456.3577.909
466.2927.767
476.2037.644
486.1427.479
496.0657.353
505.9967.220
515.9247.100
525.8606.982
535.7746.837
545.7206.707
555.6556.564
565.5946.406
575.5366.309
585.4786.209
595.3986.104
605.3395.960
615.2775.823
625.2175.723
635.1505.627
645.0845.513
655.0205.422
664.9555.329
674.8905.243
684.8185.130
694.7445.014
704.6824.931
714.6284.816
724.5544.725
734.4904.617
744.4134.521
754.3344.414
764.2564.318
774.1894.214
784.1344.117
794.0574.024
803.9783.902
813.9033.786
823.8203.676
833.7583.550
843.6873.444
853.6013.352
863.4863.226
873.3963.096
883.3152.990
893.2092.862
903.1192.718
912.9962.582
922.9012.419
932.7912.242
942.6722.020
952.5381.858
962.3601.665
972.1451.371
981.8931.104
991.6000.768


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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