Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park


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Product list for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park



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Historical and exceedance probability for Gibbo River at Gibbo Park ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1971+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan4.3933.0007.0780.4283.36218.354
Jan-Feb6.8516.31231.3200.5725.77224.738
Jan-Mar9.02811.84542.6321.0677.83129.066

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.14916.712
2022.21412.550
3019.50410.331
4017.6238.562
5015.8847.220
6014.3055.960
7012.6504.931
8011.0053.902
908.9232.718

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.73133.305
234.94826.870
332.86024.656
431.12822.978
530.17121.760
629.12420.226
728.36319.193
827.55118.255
926.93417.361
1026.14916.712
1125.58016.187
1225.09115.623
1324.67915.201
1424.33014.780
1523.98014.331
1623.60313.984
1723.19213.576
1822.94213.169
1922.60612.821
2022.21412.550
2121.87312.291
2221.58811.994
2321.28511.805
2421.03711.515
2520.79411.339
2620.51211.188
2720.26510.951
2820.01410.766
2919.75210.563
3019.50410.331
3119.29810.126
3219.1229.911
3318.8889.747
3418.7169.593
3518.5219.369
3618.3179.199
3718.1439.024
3817.9998.866
3917.8038.733
4017.6238.562
4117.4128.396
4217.2578.276
4317.1088.172
4416.9548.033
4516.7997.909
4616.6567.767
4716.4467.644
4816.2927.479
4916.0597.353
5015.8847.220
5115.7567.100
5215.5936.982
5315.4336.837
5415.2776.707
5515.1106.564
5614.9286.406
5714.7746.309
5814.6406.209
5914.4576.104
6014.3055.960
6114.1435.823
6214.0265.723
6313.8215.627
6413.6175.513
6513.4785.422
6613.2965.329
6713.1645.243
6812.9805.130
6912.8485.014
7012.6504.931
7112.4614.816
7212.3004.725
7312.1304.617
7411.9964.521
7511.8484.414
7611.6434.318
7711.5104.214
7811.3454.117
7911.1634.024
8011.0053.902
8110.8443.786
8210.6083.676
8310.4663.550
8410.2193.444
859.9703.352
869.7103.226
879.4653.096
889.2612.990
899.0712.862
908.9232.718
918.6722.582
928.3962.419
938.0742.242
947.7892.020
957.4631.858
967.1711.665
976.6941.371
986.0791.104
995.1240.768


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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