Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( May 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10328.434385.456
20258.385279.946
30214.298226.660
40182.091185.898
50156.329156.140
60132.856129.182
70113.443107.987
8091.23687.609
9067.25365.310

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1596.274860.329
2511.825667.438
3467.539603.413
4432.822555.800
5405.003521.725
6387.053479.469
7367.965451.405
8353.051426.234
9340.172402.509
10328.434385.456
11319.948371.786
12310.996357.218
13302.948346.371
14293.032335.645
15285.861324.257
16280.853315.520
17275.487305.319
18269.489295.204
19263.446286.585
20258.385279.946
21252.454273.597
22248.324266.373
23244.222261.800
24238.424254.805
25234.982250.586
26229.874246.951
27225.848241.316
28222.452236.921
29218.984232.117
30214.298226.660
31210.670221.849
32207.430216.836
33203.403213.026
34200.009209.468
35196.480204.287
36193.308200.378
37190.768196.390
38188.060192.789
39184.461189.774
40182.091185.898
41179.549182.164
42176.136179.473
43173.880177.141
44171.209174.053
45168.779171.285
46166.439168.131
47163.665165.423
48161.361161.804
49158.632159.037
50156.329156.140
51153.764153.519
52151.222150.959
53148.579147.826
54146.027145.043
55144.132141.971
56141.412138.602
57139.560136.542
58136.954134.439
59134.786132.221
60132.856129.182
61131.237126.331
62129.436124.233
63127.196122.241
64125.297119.882
65123.618118.012
66121.366116.108
67119.258114.336
68117.085112.033
69115.041109.677
70113.443107.987
71111.443105.683
72109.300103.842
73106.845101.689
74104.75699.770
75102.42597.648
76100.49295.756
7798.24293.698
7896.13891.800
7994.03089.984
8091.23687.609
8189.20885.378
8286.90183.256
8384.02580.848
8481.69878.830
8579.43677.081
8677.19174.721
8774.49072.285
8872.29370.318
8970.05767.952
9067.25365.310
9164.60262.833
9261.38859.889
9357.85656.726
9454.75952.827
9550.84549.993
9645.93746.681
9742.25941.728
9836.50737.311
9929.16331.922


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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