Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10496.786668.540
20431.401567.341
30385.711501.434
40348.056440.392
50316.441388.018
60286.226333.242
70257.081283.738
80225.977230.845
90185.733167.141

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1696.698925.552
2634.481843.696
3601.514811.555
4574.298785.090
5558.570765.452
6546.087738.057
7534.071718.716
8522.661700.553
9507.970682.323
10496.786668.540
11489.634657.034
12482.350644.247
13475.026634.480
14469.880624.627
15461.015613.715
16454.540604.986
17449.464594.714
18444.552584.157
19437.383574.784
20431.401567.341
21425.294560.099
22420.787551.977
23416.537546.258
24411.589537.860
25407.344532.560
26402.685527.971
27398.489520.939
28392.887515.316
29389.384508.734
30385.711501.434
31382.206494.700
32378.055487.805
33374.053482.320
34369.460476.878
35365.813469.347
36362.108463.275
37358.880457.167
38355.156451.427
39351.427446.679
40348.056440.392
41345.046434.261
42341.897429.686
43338.515425.808
44335.354420.448
45332.701415.592
46328.645410.118
47325.912405.114
48322.542398.526
49319.116393.497
50316.441388.018
51313.566383.006
52310.794377.952
53307.622371.991
54304.315366.239
55301.397360.351
56298.592353.141
57295.516348.843
58291.812344.471
59288.923339.639
60286.226333.242
61282.878326.796
62280.463322.050
63277.774317.587
64274.800312.065
65271.626307.734
66268.740303.277
67266.112299.087
68263.044293.582
69260.208287.876
70257.081283.738
71253.591278.035
72250.712273.430
73248.265267.984
74245.555263.078
75243.006257.594
76239.004252.654
77236.113247.227
78233.371242.173
79229.473237.295
80225.977230.845
81222.008224.723
82218.601218.845
83214.899212.105
84210.742206.407
85206.758201.426
86202.797194.660
87197.554187.610
88193.491181.881
89189.609174.940
90185.733167.141
91180.844159.783
92174.340150.997
93168.894141.516
94163.663129.804
95156.396121.297
96148.202111.383
97138.89396.681
98127.78083.777
99112.58468.429


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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