Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10672.007749.232
20581.846631.938
30520.336556.131
40470.228486.548
50425.806427.496
60385.610366.546
70345.199312.282
80297.432255.191
90241.298187.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1910.3621049.259
2843.251953.532
3800.911915.974
4774.373885.066
5752.574862.144
6734.568830.187
7710.983807.641
8696.725786.483
9684.282765.263
10672.007749.232
11661.810735.857
12651.110721.004
13638.739709.665
14628.380698.234
15620.347685.582
16611.484675.470
17602.000663.578
18594.869651.367
19587.540640.534
20581.846631.938
21576.110623.581
22569.435614.216
23564.452607.626
24557.707597.957
25550.666591.859
26544.208586.583
27538.240578.503
28532.416572.047
29526.420564.498
30520.336556.131
31514.518548.422
32509.007540.536
33504.125534.268
34499.236528.054
35494.229519.465
36489.972512.548
37484.449505.597
38478.982499.072
39474.921493.681
40470.228486.548
41465.987479.601
42461.581474.422
43456.433470.037
44452.485463.981
45448.117458.501
46443.508452.330
47438.834446.695
48433.493439.288
49430.185433.641
50425.806427.496
51421.562421.883
52417.401416.229
53413.975409.570
54410.172403.155
55405.958396.598
56401.255388.583
57397.398383.812
58394.261378.966
59389.629373.616
60385.610366.546
61381.807359.434
62376.583354.207
63372.523349.297
64368.157343.232
65363.632338.483
66360.760333.602
67357.322329.019
68354.210323.007
69350.121316.787
70345.199312.282
71340.106306.083
72336.162301.085
73330.842295.184
74326.795289.876
75321.158283.952
76317.081278.624
77311.975272.780
78307.546267.345
79301.868262.106
80297.432255.191
81291.421248.638
82286.564242.354
83281.160235.161
84276.580229.088
85270.249223.786
86264.284216.591
87259.246209.103
88252.833203.023
89247.735195.663
90241.298187.399
91233.443179.604
92226.744170.298
93217.938160.252
94208.177147.828
95199.077138.785
96187.269128.220
97174.026112.477
98158.54498.555
99140.73981.817


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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