Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10448.427511.253
20389.786430.111
30347.234377.130
40312.851327.938
50282.741285.645
60256.175241.385
70230.618201.490
80198.595159.259
90161.363109.691

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1606.076716.756
2558.897651.353
3535.532625.663
4515.469604.506
5496.934588.804
6486.158566.892
7474.939551.418
8464.920536.883
9457.378522.289
10448.427511.253
11440.512502.038
12433.945491.794
13427.204483.967
14419.833476.069
15414.158467.320
16408.547460.320
17403.756452.081
18399.308443.610
19394.122436.087
20389.786430.111
21385.284424.295
22380.632417.771
23376.100413.177
24371.927406.428
25367.197402.167
26362.728398.478
27358.940392.823
28355.012388.300
29350.869383.005
30347.234377.130
31342.693371.709
32338.719366.157
33335.583361.740
34332.311357.355
35329.501351.286
36326.558346.392
37322.910341.468
38319.321336.839
39316.095333.010
40312.851327.938
41309.578322.991
42306.865319.298
43303.491316.168
44300.694311.841
45298.147307.920
46295.640303.499
47292.243299.457
48289.055294.135
49285.531290.072
50282.741285.645
51280.001281.595
52277.086277.511
53274.324272.694
54272.072268.045
55268.835263.287
56266.640257.460
57263.816253.987
58261.640250.455
59258.999246.551
60256.175241.385
61254.033236.180
62251.468232.350
63248.759228.748
64246.241224.294
65244.410220.803
66241.923217.211
67239.417213.836
68236.508209.405
69233.721204.816
70230.618201.490
71227.211196.910
72223.971193.215
73221.134188.851
74218.152184.923
75214.354180.539
76211.486176.596
77208.542172.269
78205.182168.247
79201.680164.372
80198.595159.259
81194.655154.418
82190.472149.782
83186.968144.484
84184.072140.018
85181.015136.127
86176.508130.858
87172.077125.394
88168.779120.973
89165.279115.644
90161.363109.691
91157.384104.111
92152.68997.501
93147.03590.436
94140.39681.814
95134.34375.631
96127.12368.517
97117.25158.167
98105.66949.298
9993.82539.046


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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