Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10630.214684.006
20535.283558.624
30474.193481.055
40422.840412.945
50379.199357.800
60339.008303.595
70301.516257.618
80256.936211.313
90203.372158.353

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1927.1041020.886
2829.440911.899
3782.485869.421
4750.736834.621
5721.688808.916
6699.620773.251
7678.806748.224
8664.381724.853
9646.772701.535
10630.214684.006
11617.428669.445
12608.747653.344
13599.316641.106
14585.930628.817
15576.609615.275
16567.393604.499
17559.018591.881
18551.567578.991
19543.907567.612
20535.283558.624
21529.302549.921
22521.584540.209
23514.492533.403
24509.350523.460
25503.412517.215
26497.035511.829
27491.175503.610
28486.325497.071
29480.024489.455
30474.193481.055
31468.772473.354
32463.563465.514
33457.850459.312
34452.852453.187
35446.608444.764
36442.386438.016
37437.154431.268
38432.936424.964
39428.233419.776
40422.840412.945
41418.709406.327
42413.144401.415
43407.848397.271
44403.397391.571
45400.179386.436
46396.577380.679
47391.991375.448
48387.638368.606
49382.628363.418
50379.199357.800
51375.461352.691
52371.912347.570
53367.278341.569
54362.405335.820
55358.425329.975
56354.658322.873
57351.112318.670
58347.187314.416
59342.722309.741
60339.008303.595
61334.679297.450
62330.994292.957
63327.402288.755
64323.099283.588
65320.262279.560
66317.365275.437
67314.069271.580
68310.054266.543
69305.570261.357
70301.516257.618
71297.752252.494
72293.311248.381
73290.568243.545
74286.646239.214
75282.294234.400
76276.391230.089
77270.882225.378
78266.313221.014
79261.456216.823
80256.936211.313
81253.335206.113
82247.505201.147
83242.937195.484
84237.438190.720
85232.863186.573
86227.101180.961
87219.428175.140
88214.413170.425
89209.406164.732
90203.372158.353
91196.929152.348
92188.916145.188
93181.877137.464
94174.171127.909
95165.018120.943
96154.747112.782
97141.858100.551
98130.22789.627
99106.66376.299


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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