Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10804.830749.232
20713.020631.938
30644.334556.131
40588.718486.548
50540.904427.496
60495.448366.546
70447.098312.282
80390.334255.191
90320.660187.399

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11076.7921049.259
2997.641953.532
3949.475915.974
4923.500885.066
5893.044862.144
6867.782830.187
7850.665807.641
8835.167786.483
9821.198765.263
10804.830749.232
11792.363735.857
12782.871721.004
13772.733709.665
14763.696698.234
15754.619685.582
16743.071675.470
17733.277663.578
18726.355651.367
19719.554640.534
20713.020631.938
21704.604623.581
22698.524614.216
23690.575607.626
24683.745597.957
25676.193591.859
26670.918586.583
27664.596578.503
28657.757572.047
29650.605564.498
30644.334556.131
31638.058548.422
32633.817540.536
33628.405534.268
34621.900528.054
35617.190519.465
36612.162512.548
37606.176505.597
38599.463499.072
39593.904493.681
40588.718486.548
41583.974479.601
42579.475474.422
43574.803470.037
44569.743463.981
45565.149458.501
46559.209452.330
47554.658446.695
48550.180439.288
49546.213433.641
50540.904427.496
51536.038421.883
52531.676416.229
53526.419409.570
54522.438403.155
55517.100396.598
56511.841388.583
57507.853383.812
58503.633378.966
59499.579373.616
60495.448366.546
61490.471359.434
62485.891354.207
63481.107349.297
64476.080343.232
65470.983338.483
66467.312333.602
67462.688329.019
68456.828323.007
69451.718316.787
70447.098312.282
71441.855306.083
72436.871301.085
73431.047295.184
74425.639289.876
75420.864283.952
76415.265278.624
77407.898272.780
78403.031267.345
79396.370262.106
80390.334255.191
81384.395248.638
82377.309242.354
83369.029235.161
84362.555229.088
85356.985223.786
86349.330216.591
87342.737209.103
88333.551203.023
89327.546195.663
90320.660187.399
91313.642179.604
92303.985170.298
93294.867160.252
94281.502147.828
95267.873138.785
96253.503128.220
97235.796112.477
98218.73498.555
99190.85381.817


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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