Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10762.948668.540
20681.640567.341
30621.301501.434
40572.247440.392
50527.374388.018
60485.184333.242
70442.560283.738
80395.873230.845
90332.869167.141

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11018.482925.552
2939.220843.696
3905.533811.555
4866.799785.090
5845.045765.452
6824.907738.057
7807.679718.716
8793.110700.553
9777.218682.323
10762.948668.540
11752.671657.034
12744.174644.247
13734.266634.480
14726.468624.627
15718.505613.715
16711.419604.986
17704.876594.714
18699.210584.157
19690.514574.784
20681.640567.341
21675.409560.099
22669.955551.977
23660.966546.258
24654.649537.860
25649.291532.560
26644.114527.971
27638.290520.939
28631.958515.316
29625.479508.734
30621.301501.434
31615.894494.700
32610.809487.805
33605.538482.320
34600.768476.878
35595.423469.347
36591.157463.275
37586.140457.167
38582.257451.427
39578.497446.679
40572.247440.392
41567.894434.261
42563.065429.686
43558.904425.808
44552.487420.448
45548.530415.592
46544.681410.118
47540.368405.114
48536.465398.526
49531.681393.497
50527.374388.018
51523.378383.006
52518.075377.952
53513.954371.991
54510.020366.239
55506.006360.351
56502.148353.141
57497.177348.843
58493.882344.471
59489.297339.639
60485.184333.242
61480.942326.796
62476.273322.050
63472.439317.587
64468.537312.065
65464.101307.734
66460.429303.277
67455.864299.087
68451.688293.582
69446.915287.876
70442.560283.738
71438.209278.035
72433.484273.430
73428.606267.984
74423.930263.078
75419.998257.594
76416.549252.654
77411.867247.227
78405.477242.173
79400.812237.295
80395.873230.845
81392.086224.723
82385.364218.845
83379.161212.105
84373.722206.407
85367.022201.426
86359.578194.660
87354.083187.610
88347.534181.881
89339.692174.940
90332.869167.141
91324.355159.783
92316.185150.997
93307.783141.516
94298.107129.804
95285.656121.297
96272.740111.383
97260.20096.681
98236.44183.777
99211.65368.429


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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