Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10771.893668.540
20689.100567.341
30627.831501.434
40579.251440.392
50534.170388.018
60491.188333.242
70448.658283.738
80401.233230.845
90338.160167.141

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11026.139925.552
2949.139843.696
3914.753811.555
4875.676785.090
5854.410765.452
6833.999738.057
7816.554718.716
8802.228700.553
9786.002682.323
10771.893668.540
11761.174657.034
12752.056644.247
13742.416634.480
14734.469624.627
15726.819613.715
16719.268604.986
17712.011594.714
18707.107584.157
19697.905574.784
20689.100567.341
21682.686560.099
22676.910551.977
23668.892546.258
24662.141537.860
25657.186532.560
26651.438527.971
27645.305520.939
28639.455515.316
29633.224508.734
30627.831501.434
31622.751494.700
32617.957487.805
33612.871482.320
34608.032476.878
35603.516469.347
36598.221463.275
37593.340457.167
38589.150451.427
39585.389446.679
40579.251440.392
41574.964434.261
42569.477429.686
43565.562425.808
44559.321420.448
45555.735415.592
46551.340410.118
47547.284405.114
48543.245398.526
49538.360393.497
50534.170388.018
51530.106383.006
52524.481377.952
53520.915371.991
54516.257366.239
55512.175360.351
56508.486353.141
57503.551348.843
58500.458344.471
59495.787339.639
60491.188333.242
61487.606326.796
62482.455322.050
63478.565317.587
64474.631312.065
65470.329307.734
66465.916303.277
67462.170299.087
68457.472293.582
69452.586287.876
70448.658283.738
71443.846278.035
72439.202273.430
73434.475267.984
74429.714263.078
75425.964257.594
76422.201252.654
77417.478247.227
78412.046242.173
79406.320237.295
80401.233230.845
81397.228224.723
82390.576218.845
83384.589212.105
84379.105206.407
85372.527201.426
86365.179194.660
87359.205187.610
88352.762181.881
89345.172174.940
90338.160167.141
91328.887159.783
92320.621150.997
93312.250141.516
94303.196129.804
95290.250121.297
96276.543111.383
97264.22296.681
98239.61083.777
99214.46668.429


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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