Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10107.843186.641
2089.155147.989
3076.348125.891
4066.698107.259
5058.35492.464
6050.64077.936
7043.47065.411
8035.71452.346
9025.42636.360

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1168.029317.374
2148.443269.981
3137.111252.931
4130.239239.517
5124.638229.915
6120.398217.004
7116.879208.219
8112.989200.209
9110.058192.398
10107.843186.641
11105.132181.929
12103.269176.793
13101.011172.939
1499.313169.111
1597.857164.940
1696.056161.655
1794.611157.846
1892.640153.995
1990.875150.628
2089.155147.989
2187.509145.451
2286.266142.637
2384.736140.677
2483.594137.830
2582.110136.052
2680.756134.524
2779.527132.203
2878.531130.364
2977.419128.232
3076.348125.891
3175.353123.755
3274.416121.588
3373.294119.881
3472.416118.200
3571.292115.895
3670.393114.055
3769.566112.220
3868.662110.509
3967.618109.105
4066.698107.259
4165.636105.475
4264.979104.152
4364.087103.038
4463.316101.507
4562.339100.129
4661.57298.586
4760.94697.185
4860.24995.354
4959.25493.966
5058.35492.464
5157.63591.098
5256.90989.729
5356.18688.124
5455.29786.585
5554.54085.020
5653.82283.117
5753.12281.990
5852.31080.848
5951.39479.591
6050.64077.936
6149.90576.278
6249.42275.063
6348.79573.925
6447.99272.522
6547.06371.426
6646.37870.302
6745.56369.248
6844.95667.868
6944.14066.442
7043.47065.411
7142.63463.993
7241.87162.850
7341.09861.502
7440.21360.289
7539.46658.936
7638.82457.718
7737.94956.381
7837.21855.136
7936.42053.935
8035.71452.346
8134.84650.836
8233.74649.384
8332.89647.715
8431.87546.300
8530.80545.059
8629.68243.366
8728.40541.592
8827.28940.140
8926.28338.370
9025.42636.360
9123.76034.442
9222.18032.118
9320.86129.563
9419.33226.325
9517.18123.904
9615.11720.996
9713.16116.468
989.58812.225
994.6236.731


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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