Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.473115.733
2064.29391.627
3056.17077.962
4049.16266.500
5043.02057.436
6038.34648.566
7033.09440.941
8027.80033.010
9021.66623.334

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1121.738199.667
2107.588168.757
3100.220157.780
495.344149.193
591.026143.072
687.625134.874
784.223129.316
882.130124.264
979.760119.349
1077.473115.733
1175.469112.780
1273.761109.565
1372.465107.156
1471.211104.766
1570.189102.165
1668.718100.119
1767.71297.748
1866.11595.355
1965.29893.264
2064.29391.627
2163.36390.053
2262.50088.310
2361.83787.096
2460.81485.335
2559.95784.235
2659.19983.290
2758.52881.856
2857.61580.721
2956.72479.405
3056.17077.962
3155.47476.644
3254.85575.310
3354.14674.258
3453.46073.224
3552.69571.806
3651.85370.674
3751.16369.547
3850.51868.496
3949.76367.633
4049.16266.500
4148.40765.405
4247.85764.594
4347.26663.911
4446.51862.972
4546.05862.128
4645.40261.183
4744.89260.325
4844.27659.204
4943.69258.355
5043.02057.436
5142.50756.601
5241.98655.764
5341.51654.783
5441.00553.843
5540.67252.888
5640.22451.726
5739.79151.038
5839.34750.341
5938.79549.575
6038.34648.566
6137.84947.555
6237.33546.815
6336.72646.122
6436.27345.268
6535.76344.600
6635.33943.916
6734.74143.275
6834.09642.435
6933.52141.568
7033.09440.941
7132.65540.079
7232.20939.385
7331.76338.566
7431.26737.829
7530.62837.007
7630.18636.268
7729.70835.457
7828.93334.702
7928.42833.973
8027.80033.010
8127.33632.094
8226.76531.214
8326.17230.203
8425.41429.346
8524.68528.595
8624.06027.570
8723.44526.497
8822.93825.619
8922.27024.549
9021.66623.334
9120.93422.175
9220.11120.772
9319.29519.230
9418.12517.277
9516.79815.817
9615.28314.065
9713.76111.339
9812.2578.787
9910.1025.485


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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