Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


  • Jan

Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1079.124115.733
2065.72691.627
3057.48377.962
4050.33666.500
5044.15357.436
6039.35148.566
7034.00040.941
8028.57633.010
9022.34623.334

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1123.938199.667
2109.428168.757
3102.320157.780
497.160149.193
592.857143.072
689.385134.874
786.053129.316
883.798124.264
981.523119.349
1079.124115.733
1177.119112.780
1275.276109.565
1373.988107.156
1472.749104.766
1571.750102.165
1670.265100.119
1769.16097.748
1867.55295.355
1966.72093.264
2065.72691.627
2164.80290.053
2263.96588.310
2363.15087.096
2462.12485.335
2561.28984.235
2660.57583.290
2759.81481.856
2858.94180.721
2958.02079.405
3057.48377.962
3156.81576.644
3256.07975.310
3355.46674.258
3454.72473.224
3553.87371.806
3653.12170.674
3752.36169.547
3851.73168.496
3950.97567.633
4050.33666.500
4149.60465.405
4249.03664.594
4348.47563.911
4447.69862.972
4547.14562.128
4646.56961.183
4746.02260.325
4845.40259.204
4944.75358.355
5044.15357.436
5143.59656.601
5242.99455.764
5342.56454.783
5442.06153.843
5541.66052.888
5641.21751.726
5740.80551.038
5840.35150.341
5939.84749.575
6039.35148.566
6138.80047.555
6238.36846.815
6337.72846.122
6437.22145.268
6536.74244.600
6636.25543.916
6735.64543.275
6835.05542.435
6934.42741.568
7034.00040.941
7133.52840.079
7233.13439.385
7332.64738.566
7432.06637.829
7531.50237.007
7631.01236.268
7730.56735.457
7829.75434.702
7929.23033.973
8028.57633.010
8128.08832.094
8227.54631.214
8326.88230.203
8426.18229.346
8525.42528.595
8624.76127.570
8724.19526.497
8823.62925.619
8922.92024.549
9022.34623.334
9121.61322.175
9220.72520.772
9319.90219.230
9418.74817.277
9517.33415.817
9615.87914.065
9714.30811.339
9812.7328.787
9910.4545.485


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence