Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10111.689151.599
2084.527108.551
3069.18987.112
4058.40270.818
5049.58659.039
6042.01348.474
7035.20640.165
8027.66832.290
9019.62323.766

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1218.570351.498
2178.427269.042
3158.320242.212
4147.855222.131
5138.782208.306
6130.530190.434
7124.340178.738
8118.853168.402
9115.163158.621
10111.689151.599
11107.819145.971
12104.079139.957
13101.131135.527
1498.244131.196
1596.064126.557
1693.478122.961
1791.418118.856
1889.281114.775
1986.189111.265
2084.527108.551
2182.592105.972
2280.814103.148
2379.502101.203
2477.83898.410
2576.49596.685
2674.98295.214
2773.47993.001
2871.99191.267
2970.47089.275
3069.18987.112
3168.15385.161
3266.83583.205
3365.45781.678
3464.63080.188
3563.40278.168
3662.22676.572
3761.13774.997
3860.26673.543
3959.48772.360
4058.40270.818
4157.38469.343
4256.29468.259
4355.37767.353
4454.67366.117
4553.63965.014
4652.69763.789
4751.84762.686
4851.04061.259
4950.23660.188
5049.58659.039
5148.71958.004
5248.01656.974
5347.18755.779
5446.39954.645
5545.71853.502
5644.86552.128
5744.07551.322
5843.44150.512
5942.62749.628
6042.01348.474
6141.12047.332
6240.35546.503
6339.62445.733
6439.04644.792
6538.38544.063
6637.79743.322
6737.19842.632
6836.58341.737
6935.91140.821
7035.20640.165
7134.41239.271
7233.63938.558
7332.86737.724
7432.19036.981
7531.53236.161
7630.63035.430
7729.83934.636
7829.12333.904
7928.42533.205
8027.66832.290
8126.93531.433
8226.31230.618
8325.64729.695
8424.83928.922
8524.00028.252
8623.08327.351
8722.17126.420
8821.42225.671
8920.59824.770
9019.62323.766
9118.84522.826
9217.90621.711
9316.88420.516
9415.83619.046
9514.48717.981
9613.20516.740
9711.75414.890
989.87813.249
996.76311.259


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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