Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10120.129151.599
2091.242108.551
3074.91787.112
4063.17970.818
5053.72859.039
6045.55348.474
7038.38440.165
8030.27932.290
9021.73823.766

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1233.704351.498
2190.099269.042
3169.936242.212
4158.820222.131
5148.303208.306
6140.259190.434
7133.503178.738
8127.773168.402
9124.432158.621
10120.129151.599
11116.277145.971
12112.419139.957
13109.025135.527
14105.910131.196
15103.848126.557
16100.993122.961
1798.561118.856
1896.094114.775
1993.164111.265
2091.242108.551
2189.325105.972
2287.106103.148
2385.826101.203
2484.02798.410
2582.46896.685
2680.89495.214
2779.56493.001
2877.69191.267
2976.30889.275
3074.91787.112
3173.57285.161
3272.53283.205
3370.75381.678
3469.80080.188
3568.68378.168
3667.19676.572
3766.35974.997
3865.38273.543
3964.34772.360
4063.17970.818
4162.11869.343
4261.17868.259
4360.06667.353
4459.17466.117
4558.25765.014
4656.99763.789
4756.08762.686
4855.27661.259
4954.49360.188
5053.72859.039
5152.79158.004
5252.08956.974
5351.14255.779
5450.27854.645
5549.57953.502
5648.71052.128
5747.90451.322
5847.07850.512
5946.29249.628
6045.55348.474
6144.90347.332
6243.93546.503
6343.18145.733
6442.47944.792
6541.78644.063
6641.17643.322
6740.42942.632
6839.79941.737
6939.15740.821
7038.38440.165
7137.50439.271
7236.63538.558
7335.91137.724
7435.08436.981
7534.24436.161
7633.46135.430
7732.67134.636
7831.67733.904
7931.06733.205
8030.27932.290
8129.42731.433
8228.73830.618
8327.97429.695
8427.20628.922
8526.32128.252
8625.29127.351
8724.35626.420
8823.47425.671
8922.63524.770
9021.73823.766
9120.80222.826
9219.73721.711
9318.57520.516
9417.63419.046
9516.08117.981
9614.71316.740
9713.19714.890
9811.05013.249
998.01511.259


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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