Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10427.037385.456
20339.090279.946
30283.155226.660
40242.343185.898
50208.505156.140
60179.945129.182
70152.063107.987
80123.88587.609
9092.60865.310

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1755.855860.329
2653.318667.438
3589.591603.413
4550.008555.800
5522.173521.725
6497.598479.469
7475.020451.405
8458.097426.234
9438.808402.509
10427.037385.456
11417.785371.786
12404.743357.218
13390.739346.371
14382.481335.645
15374.280324.257
16366.620315.520
17359.997305.319
18351.538295.204
19345.640286.585
20339.090279.946
21332.986273.597
22327.275266.373
23319.680261.800
24313.191254.805
25308.299250.586
26303.343246.951
27298.067241.316
28292.940236.921
29287.733232.117
30283.155226.660
31278.928221.849
32274.556216.836
33270.695213.026
34265.688209.468
35261.403204.287
36257.059200.378
37253.014196.390
38249.551192.789
39245.709189.774
40242.343185.898
41239.065182.164
42234.954179.473
43231.172177.141
44227.938174.053
45223.772171.285
46220.486168.131
47217.268165.423
48214.925161.804
49212.082159.037
50208.505156.140
51205.733153.519
52202.549150.959
53200.019147.826
54196.543145.043
55193.533141.971
56191.420138.602
57188.206136.542
58185.401134.439
59182.638132.221
60179.945129.182
61176.656126.331
62173.521124.233
63171.655122.241
64168.991119.882
65166.111118.012
66162.988116.108
67160.734114.336
68157.661112.033
69154.724109.677
70152.063107.987
71149.311105.683
72146.625103.842
73144.243101.689
74141.53199.770
75138.79497.648
76136.12195.756
77132.63793.698
78130.34891.800
79126.85189.984
80123.88587.609
81121.00885.378
82118.39783.256
83115.43880.848
84112.49878.830
85108.91777.081
86105.60574.721
87102.56272.285
8899.72370.318
8996.09167.952
9092.60865.310
9188.49462.833
9284.73059.889
9380.14256.726
9475.89752.827
9570.88049.993
9665.13046.681
9759.20041.728
9852.38437.311
9942.04831.922


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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