Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam



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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10639.158684.006
20543.288558.624
30482.107481.055
40429.794412.945
50385.652357.800
60344.982303.595
70306.823257.618
80262.077211.313
90207.738158.353

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1938.3621020.886
2840.025911.899
3791.825869.421
4760.928834.621
5731.160808.916
6707.872773.251
7688.390748.224
8673.044724.853
9655.294701.535
10639.158684.006
11626.388669.445
12616.913653.344
13607.734641.106
14595.014628.817
15584.961615.275
16575.118604.499
17566.871591.881
18559.867578.991
19552.093567.612
20543.288558.624
21537.079549.921
22529.769540.209
23522.479533.403
24517.002523.460
25510.868517.215
26504.553511.829
27499.104503.610
28494.019497.071
29487.379489.455
30482.107481.055
31475.916473.354
32470.969465.514
33465.302459.312
34460.017453.187
35454.222444.764
36449.708438.016
37443.883431.268
38440.143424.964
39435.412419.776
40429.794412.945
41425.574406.327
42420.115401.415
43414.665397.271
44410.402391.571
45406.903386.436
46402.740380.679
47398.715375.448
48394.343368.606
49389.583363.418
50385.652357.800
51381.701352.691
52378.419347.570
53373.856341.569
54368.408335.820
55364.642329.975
56360.813322.873
57357.427318.670
58353.062314.416
59349.083309.741
60344.982303.595
61340.394297.450
62337.165292.957
63333.277288.755
64329.006283.588
65326.146279.560
66322.722275.437
67319.862271.580
68315.842266.543
69311.272261.357
70306.823257.618
71303.201252.494
72298.527248.381
73295.888243.545
74291.970239.214
75287.362234.400
76282.006230.089
77275.453225.378
78271.444221.014
79266.652216.823
80262.077211.313
81257.816206.113
82252.112201.147
83247.863195.484
84242.190190.720
85237.590186.573
86231.414180.961
87223.904175.140
88219.132170.425
89213.743164.732
90207.738158.353
91200.954152.348
92192.707145.188
93185.952137.464
94177.930127.909
95168.725120.943
96158.529112.782
97145.299100.551
98132.70289.627
99109.39376.299


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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