Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam



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Exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jan 2009 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1065.130115.733
2053.26791.627
3046.24977.962
4040.02566.500
5034.91957.436
6030.83948.566
7026.36340.941
8021.88433.010
9016.64023.334

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.583199.667
292.853168.757
385.185157.780
480.964149.193
577.315143.072
673.805134.874
771.649129.316
869.322124.264
966.680119.349
1065.130115.733
1163.603112.780
1261.960109.565
1360.586107.156
1459.361104.766
1558.368102.165
1657.151100.119
1756.15097.748
1855.47195.355
1954.29693.264
2053.26791.627
2152.51390.053
2251.83888.310
2351.10987.096
2450.48785.335
2549.40384.235
2648.82183.290
2748.25281.856
2847.45580.721
2946.93579.405
3046.24977.962
3145.68976.644
3245.13575.310
3344.41874.258
3443.77473.224
3543.03171.806
3642.39270.674
3741.79869.547
3841.20968.496
3940.65767.633
4040.02566.500
4139.54665.405
4239.00164.594
4338.39263.911
4437.88762.972
4537.43962.128
4636.88961.183
4736.42960.325
4835.97859.204
4935.47058.355
5034.91957.436
5134.51956.601
5234.08255.764
5333.76754.783
5433.36553.843
5532.96852.888
5632.57451.726
5732.15551.038
5831.75850.341
5931.31449.575
6030.83948.566
6130.43847.555
6230.06546.815
6329.56846.122
6429.21045.268
6528.64944.600
6628.17643.916
6727.73843.275
6827.29242.435
6926.79641.568
7026.36340.941
7126.01540.079
7225.62539.385
7325.12538.566
7424.65437.829
7524.22337.007
7623.75736.268
7723.34035.457
7822.80534.702
7922.35233.973
8021.88433.010
8121.41932.094
8220.94931.214
8320.50430.203
8419.94329.346
8519.27528.595
8618.78227.570
8718.33026.497
8817.87225.619
8917.29024.549
9016.64023.334
9116.00022.175
9215.51420.772
9314.54719.230
9413.81917.277
9512.66115.817
9611.30414.065
9710.11211.339
988.8688.787
996.5475.485


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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