Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile71.83459.295
Median109.41195.047
Mean131.850122.689
75% Quartile166.236152.806
Interquartile Range94.40293.511

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1467.893529.338
2384.648409.239
3344.731369.880
4320.841340.314
5298.912319.902
6281.538293.439
7270.450276.071
8257.280260.687
9247.701246.096
10240.684235.600
11231.745227.175
12224.898218.158
13218.186211.507
14212.871204.997
15206.636198.015
16200.792192.596
17196.509186.403
18193.002180.238
19188.988174.929
20184.341170.820
21180.443166.911
22176.151162.628
23172.534159.675
24169.570155.431
25166.271152.807
26163.738150.570
27161.045147.200
28157.805144.556
29155.388141.517
30151.857138.216
31148.870135.235
32147.086132.243
33144.097129.907
34142.026127.625
35139.434124.528
36137.519122.081
37135.472119.662
38133.294117.429
39131.076115.609
40129.072113.237
41126.432110.966
42124.440109.296
43122.695107.898
44120.698105.991
45118.619104.289
46116.471102.397
47114.655100.693
48113.06898.486
49111.15596.828
50109.41195.047
51107.86393.442
52106.12791.845
53104.71689.990
54102.73088.228
55101.10186.452
5699.71584.314
5797.87583.058
5896.44781.796
5995.21780.417
6093.88078.617
6192.26176.833
6290.93575.537
6389.42774.332
6487.80372.860
6586.23471.719
6684.61670.556
6783.25369.475
6882.02168.070
6980.30766.632
7078.92765.601
7177.27164.195
7275.83863.072
7374.46261.759
7473.21460.588
7571.83259.293
7670.46158.140
7769.18156.884
7867.47655.727
7965.89354.620
8064.57153.172
8162.79051.812
8261.59850.519
8359.89049.051
8458.25947.822
8556.56446.756
8654.86245.318
8752.79743.834
8850.82642.636
8948.67641.195
9046.73639.587
9144.93538.079
9242.67236.287
9341.11834.362
9437.92831.990
9535.44730.266
9632.62528.252
9729.82825.242
9826.08522.558
9920.45819.286


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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