Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile419.873283.961
Median539.592427.496
Mean554.977451.375
75% Quartile674.664591.856
Interquartile Range254.791307.895

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11075.3711049.259
2996.860953.532
3948.548915.974
4922.420885.066
5891.881862.144
6866.131830.187
7849.123807.641
8833.767786.483
9819.680765.263
10803.467749.232
11791.058735.857
12781.860721.004
13771.349709.665
14762.304698.234
15753.316685.582
16741.315675.470
17732.128663.578
18724.714651.367
19718.413640.534
20711.568631.938
21703.399623.581
22697.096614.216
23689.161607.626
24682.422597.957
25674.686591.859
26669.626586.583
27663.284578.503
28656.606572.047
29649.401564.498
30643.046556.131
31636.776548.422
32632.656540.536
33627.375534.268
34620.445528.054
35615.854519.465
36610.775512.548
37604.671505.597
38598.431499.072
39592.574493.681
40587.260486.548
41582.741479.601
42578.154474.422
43573.567470.037
44568.462463.981
45563.821458.501
46557.890452.330
47553.418446.695
48549.002439.288
49545.181433.641
50539.592427.496
51534.890421.883
52530.401416.229
53525.218409.570
54521.287403.155
55515.877396.598
56510.739388.583
57506.596383.812
58502.665378.966
59498.564373.616
60494.377366.546
61489.396359.434
62484.827354.207
63479.883349.297
64475.072343.232
65469.979338.483
66466.281333.602
67461.471329.019
68455.742323.007
69450.652316.787
70445.885312.282
71440.676306.083
72435.873301.085
73430.125295.184
74424.780289.876
75419.824283.952
76414.401278.624
77406.740272.780
78401.888267.345
79395.344262.106
80389.297255.191
81383.269248.638
82376.327242.354
83368.198235.161
84361.598229.088
85355.929223.786
86348.511216.591
87341.723209.103
88332.717203.023
89326.760195.663
90319.796187.399
91312.928179.604
92302.926170.298
93294.140160.252
94280.680147.828
95267.174138.785
96252.846128.220
97234.944112.477
98218.11698.555
99190.30781.817


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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