Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jan 2010 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile27.69137.009
Median39.26057.436
Mean43.41564.900
75% Quartile55.04984.234
Interquartile Range27.35847.226

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1114.546199.667
2100.822168.757
393.096157.780
488.711149.193
584.737143.072
681.348134.874
778.455129.316
876.477124.264
973.714119.349
1071.837115.733
1170.182112.780
1268.271109.565
1367.036107.156
1465.810104.766
1564.715102.165
1663.396100.119
1762.45697.748
1861.26995.355
1960.08593.264
2059.13891.627
2158.36690.053
2257.61288.310
2356.83887.096
2456.12185.335
2555.05184.235
2654.43383.290
2753.78881.856
2852.97980.721
2952.19779.405
3051.53777.962
3150.99076.644
3250.33675.310
3349.77974.258
3448.95173.224
3548.18871.806
3647.40870.674
3746.83269.547
3846.26168.496
3945.67967.633
4044.97166.500
4144.30165.405
4243.79364.594
4343.13763.911
4442.58062.972
4542.09562.128
4641.53561.183
4740.99060.325
4840.37859.204
4939.77558.355
5039.26057.436
5138.86056.601
5238.39155.764
5337.91654.783
5437.49853.843
5537.11152.888
5636.71651.726
5736.33351.038
5835.85650.341
5935.41849.575
6034.91548.566
6134.42847.555
6233.88646.815
6333.49146.122
6433.07645.268
6532.52244.600
6632.03343.916
6731.50843.275
6830.91542.435
6930.41141.568
7030.00840.941
7129.61340.079
7229.16939.385
7328.67338.566
7428.22537.829
7527.67937.007
7627.13736.268
7726.67735.457
7826.20734.702
7925.62533.973
8025.03133.010
8124.64532.094
8224.09531.214
8323.51430.203
8422.91029.346
8522.15528.595
8621.69627.570
8721.14026.497
8820.56725.619
8919.99324.549
9019.33323.334
9118.65422.175
9218.00420.772
9317.24419.230
9416.14617.277
9514.91615.817
9613.43814.065
9711.97911.339
9810.6538.787
998.3735.485


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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