Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam



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Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile75.15737.009
Median98.59157.436
Mean104.07164.900
75% Quartile127.27684.234
Interquartile Range52.11947.226

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1222.697199.667
2205.494168.757
3192.366157.780
4185.633149.193
5177.647143.072
6173.157134.874
7168.055129.316
8164.225124.264
9161.023119.349
10157.478115.733
11154.615112.780
12152.537109.565
13149.750107.156
14147.181104.766
15144.337102.165
16141.870100.119
17140.23397.748
18138.11695.355
19136.29393.264
20134.44991.627
21132.68290.053
22131.07188.310
23129.83087.096
24128.49285.335
25127.28584.235
26125.64783.290
27124.70081.856
28123.58080.721
29122.45779.405
30121.50877.962
31119.87476.644
32118.48675.310
33117.58174.258
34116.18573.224
35114.89471.806
36113.83670.674
37112.60369.547
38111.40968.496
39110.40067.633
40109.23266.500
41108.29765.405
42107.30464.594
43106.16163.911
44105.01462.972
45103.75062.128
46102.49261.183
47101.22460.325
48100.46259.204
4999.47858.355
5098.59157.436
5197.63156.601
5296.80455.764
5395.96554.783
5494.95153.843
5594.09552.888
5693.07551.726
5792.10851.038
5890.90250.341
5989.98749.575
6089.10348.566
6188.25447.555
6287.31046.815
6386.24046.122
6485.40745.268
6584.75344.600
6683.68343.916
6782.59143.275
6881.68342.435
6980.66541.568
7079.81340.941
7178.94740.079
7277.95439.385
7377.19538.566
7476.28737.829
7575.15337.007
7674.10836.268
7772.98135.457
7871.66734.702
7970.75833.973
8069.73233.010
8168.39932.094
8267.38231.214
8366.28030.203
8465.02129.346
8563.57328.595
8662.46027.570
8761.56026.497
8860.24325.619
8958.85324.549
9057.17123.334
9155.32022.175
9253.44220.772
9352.21219.230
9450.18517.277
9548.05015.817
9645.35814.065
9741.67211.339
9838.4298.787
9932.5265.485


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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