Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam



Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile39.60037.009
Median54.30657.436
Mean58.83864.900
75% Quartile73.89184.234
Interquartile Range34.29147.226

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1143.798199.667
2127.629168.757
3120.380157.780
4113.874149.193
5109.529143.072
6105.503134.874
7101.825129.316
899.419124.264
996.597119.349
1094.158115.733
1191.709112.780
1289.853109.565
1388.494107.156
1487.009104.766
1585.379102.165
1684.062100.119
1782.50497.748
1881.16495.355
1980.24993.264
2079.05991.627
2178.02390.053
2276.98988.310
2375.92987.096
2474.71885.335
2573.90684.235
2672.97583.290
2772.00881.856
2871.13280.721
2970.31079.405
3069.55477.962
3168.71976.644
3267.84075.310
3367.01574.258
3466.35573.224
3565.40771.806
3664.73370.674
3763.97769.547
3862.92768.496
3962.01567.633
4061.26466.500
4160.52765.405
4259.87164.594
4359.20963.911
4458.55162.972
4557.75262.128
4656.99061.183
4756.25260.325
4855.67259.204
4955.00358.355
5054.30657.436
5153.47156.601
5252.86955.764
5352.24054.783
5451.60553.843
5551.09852.888
5650.51451.726
5750.06051.038
5849.46550.341
5949.00249.575
6048.48848.566
6147.85647.555
6247.19646.815
6346.60546.122
6446.01045.268
6545.48244.600
6644.99643.916
6744.38443.275
6843.59842.435
6942.88341.568
7042.35840.941
7141.76340.079
7241.23039.385
7340.76938.566
7440.16037.829
7539.60037.007
7638.91536.268
7738.18935.457
7837.52834.702
7936.72833.973
8036.02833.010
8135.29432.094
8234.59131.214
8333.78230.203
8433.03129.346
8532.27128.595
8631.45227.570
8730.72026.497
8830.02625.619
8929.35924.549
9028.52523.334
9127.65222.175
9226.71720.772
9325.42419.230
9424.42717.277
9522.64815.817
9621.16114.065
9719.13511.339
9817.0168.787
9914.4925.485


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence