Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Oct154.91379.40931.12686.183395.468
Oct-Nov244.574121.74338.773149.652631.682
Oct-Dec298.136158.20443.213196.472693.274

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10372.003511.253
20320.333430.111
30283.566377.130
40252.647327.938
50226.674285.645
60204.225241.385
70181.414201.490
80153.516159.259
90123.809109.691

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1523.727716.756
2481.347651.353
3458.647625.663
4441.744604.506
5422.825588.804
6408.858566.892
7398.425551.418
8391.193536.883
9381.841522.289
10372.003511.253
11366.042502.038
12360.091491.794
13355.057483.967
14349.926476.069
15344.928467.320
16338.842460.320
17334.542452.081
18329.658443.610
19324.256436.087
20320.333430.111
21315.445424.295
22311.452417.771
23307.937413.177
24304.513406.428
25300.935402.167
26296.965398.478
27292.811392.823
28289.656388.300
29286.222383.005
30283.566377.130
31280.222371.709
32276.914366.157
33274.049361.740
34270.109357.355
35267.403351.286
36264.803346.392
37261.483341.468
38258.412336.839
39255.643333.010
40252.647327.938
41249.844322.991
42246.919319.298
43244.000316.168
44240.804311.841
45238.661307.920
46236.105303.499
47233.806299.457
48230.916294.135
49228.777290.072
50226.674285.645
51224.676281.595
52222.076277.511
53220.057272.694
54218.023268.045
55215.471263.287
56212.877257.460
57211.174253.987
58209.113250.455
59206.802246.551
60204.225241.385
61201.780236.180
62199.137232.350
63196.959228.748
64195.055224.294
65193.146220.803
66190.833217.211
67188.580213.836
68186.061209.405
69184.193204.816
70181.414201.490
71179.303196.910
72176.450193.215
73173.868188.851
74171.761184.923
75168.221180.539
76165.363176.596
77162.436172.269
78159.258168.247
79156.781164.372
80153.516159.259
81151.016154.418
82148.503149.782
83146.480144.484
84143.113140.018
85139.946136.127
86137.380130.858
87133.979125.394
88131.197120.973
89126.882115.644
90123.809109.691
91120.109104.111
92115.72797.501
93111.45890.436
94107.80881.814
95102.61875.631
9696.64068.517
9790.31458.167
9881.19749.298
9968.67739.046


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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