Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul102.248123.81012.55679.569428.465
Jul-Aug241.357365.19735.814193.913685.503
Jul-Sep399.701495.34174.254330.875964.860

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10635.885684.006
20540.342558.624
30479.232481.055
40427.386412.945
50383.090357.800
60342.989303.595
70304.918257.618
80260.224211.313
90206.142158.353

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1934.3751020.886
2836.272911.899
3787.961869.421
4757.323834.621
5727.786808.916
6704.795773.251
7684.245748.224
8670.122724.853
9652.256701.535
10635.885684.006
11622.935669.445
12614.183653.344
13604.553641.106
14591.683628.817
15581.788615.275
16572.346604.499
17564.054591.881
18556.945578.991
19549.185567.612
20540.342558.624
21534.417549.921
22527.102540.209
23519.621533.403
24514.192523.460
25508.409517.215
26501.934511.829
27496.192503.610
28491.477497.071
29484.877489.455
30479.232481.055
31473.473473.354
32468.433465.514
33462.740459.312
34457.516453.187
35451.484444.764
36447.146438.016
37441.331431.268
38437.514424.964
39432.833419.776
40427.386412.945
41423.196406.327
42417.734401.415
43412.466397.271
44407.929391.571
45404.625386.436
46400.477380.679
47396.358375.448
48391.836368.606
49387.007363.418
50383.090357.800
51379.576352.691
52376.095347.570
53371.524341.569
54366.399335.820
55362.496329.975
56358.668322.873
57355.281318.670
58350.939314.416
59346.929309.741
60342.989303.595
61338.370297.450
62334.984292.957
63331.270288.755
64327.022283.588
65323.958279.560
66320.728275.437
67317.921271.580
68313.891266.543
69309.273261.357
70304.918257.618
71301.204252.494
72296.591248.381
73294.068243.545
74290.072239.214
75285.770234.400
76279.887230.089
77273.838225.378
78269.713221.014
79264.826216.823
80260.224211.313
81256.274206.113
82250.456201.147
83246.035195.484
84240.488190.720
85235.974186.573
86229.890180.961
87222.298175.140
88217.413170.425
89212.185164.732
90206.142158.353
91199.585152.348
92191.261145.188
93184.428137.464
94176.590127.909
95167.520120.943
96157.313112.782
97144.209100.551
98131.78289.627
99108.42676.299


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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