Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr25.26820.6018.34415.769333.827
Apr-May64.93246.48417.06635.764606.884
Apr-Jun130.449111.86325.86281.796948.515

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10188.972235.600
20145.051170.820
30119.542138.216
40100.399113.237
5085.47195.047
6072.86278.617
7061.00965.601
8049.89653.172
9035.89039.587

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1377.976529.338
2306.469409.239
3273.133369.880
4255.714340.314
5238.999319.902
6225.722293.439
7214.541276.071
8204.058260.687
9196.333246.096
10188.972235.600
11183.150227.175
12177.185218.158
13171.805211.507
14166.977204.997
15162.731198.015
16158.897192.596
17154.884186.403
18151.050180.238
19148.249174.929
20145.051170.820
21141.610166.911
22138.845162.628
23135.925159.675
24133.008155.431
25130.361152.807
26128.547150.570
27126.162147.200
28124.063144.556
29121.956141.517
30119.542138.216
31117.072135.235
32114.938132.243
33113.297129.907
34111.083127.625
35109.444124.528
36107.782122.081
37105.798119.662
38103.896117.429
39102.006115.609
40100.399113.237
4198.949110.966
4297.025109.296
4395.789107.898
4494.241105.991
4592.629104.289
4691.139102.397
4789.393100.693
4888.11598.486
4986.77496.828
5085.47195.047
5184.32793.442
5282.90991.845
5381.61089.990
5480.31488.228
5578.86086.452
5677.63884.314
5776.27183.058
5874.93081.796
5973.88180.417
6072.86278.617
6171.70076.833
6270.55975.537
6369.48974.332
6468.24972.860
6567.14171.719
6665.93870.556
6764.64169.475
6863.31768.070
6962.16166.632
7061.00965.601
7159.87864.195
7258.72863.072
7357.28061.759
7456.52960.588
7555.62759.293
7654.49358.140
7753.40556.884
7852.31655.727
7951.23554.620
8049.89653.172
8148.69051.812
8247.15250.519
8345.94349.051
8444.90247.822
8543.44346.756
8642.08845.318
8740.49143.834
8838.96442.636
8937.17041.195
9035.89039.587
9134.10738.079
9232.84736.287
9331.16134.362
9428.99631.990
9527.12730.266
9624.55028.252
9722.56125.242
9819.37422.558
9914.97219.286


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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