Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam( )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1956) (GL)
Apr25.22632.06332.5328.34412.820333.827
Apr-May65.19758.57666.40717.06630.008606.884
Apr-Jun129.729110.773190.84825.86265.937948.515

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10439.714235.600
20347.071170.820
30288.762138.216
40244.004113.237
50209.43095.047
60180.99578.617
70152.71465.601
80126.27653.172
9092.33539.587

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)		Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)		Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1799.432529.338
2686.912409.239
3625.136369.880
4575.564340.314
5544.675319.902
6515.850293.439
7497.495276.071
8471.876260.687
9457.102246.096
10439.714235.600
11428.835227.175
12417.634218.158
13406.461211.507
14395.345204.997
15385.857198.015
16377.060192.596
17370.567186.403
18362.541180.238
19354.437174.929
20347.071170.820
21339.238166.911
22333.400162.628
23327.117159.675
24320.966155.431
25315.304152.807
26309.402150.570
27304.673147.200
28299.262144.556
29294.227141.517
30288.762138.216
31283.402135.235
32278.124132.243
33273.375129.907
34269.332127.625
35264.313124.528
36260.618122.081
37256.908119.662
38252.753117.429
39248.021115.609
40244.004113.237
41240.725110.966
42237.188109.296
43234.034107.898
44230.737105.991
45226.436104.289
46223.422102.397
47219.776100.693
48216.98898.486
49212.65096.828
50209.43095.047
51206.71793.442
52203.48391.845
53200.50489.990
54197.72188.228
55195.12586.452
56192.21684.314
57188.58383.058
58185.40181.796
59183.33680.417
60180.99578.617
61178.28876.833
62175.13575.537
63172.21774.332
64169.01672.860
65165.98771.719
66163.16970.556
67160.35269.475
68158.15268.070
69155.32966.632
70152.71465.601
71150.23264.195
72146.98863.072
73144.34561.759
74141.90060.588
75139.19659.293
76136.57958.140
77134.26956.884
78131.53655.727
79128.57554.620
80126.27653.172
81123.00551.812
82119.90750.519
83117.04749.051
84113.95847.822
85110.83046.756
86107.70945.318
87103.50743.834
8899.44142.636
8996.22241.195
9092.33539.587
9188.79638.079
9285.24036.287
9379.63134.362
9474.69431.990
9570.28930.266
9665.74028.252
9759.89225.242
9852.67022.558
9943.43819.286


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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