Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Product list for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Total inflow to Dartmouth Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1952) (GL)
Nov90.93865.98957.8099.67363.891252.575
Nov-Dec145.123116.75889.70711.399115.115433.806
Nov-Jan174.822144.103106.26213.035138.171484.394

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10216.906306.244
20181.750255.245
30160.298221.837
40142.278190.701
50127.543163.823
60113.940135.603
7099.478110.178
8082.97583.538
9065.00053.381

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1312.055435.046
2282.479394.078
3268.804377.983
4254.899364.725
5246.201354.883
6239.720341.147
7233.504331.443
8225.499322.326
9221.578313.170
10216.906306.244
11212.680300.459
12207.609294.026
13204.271289.110
14200.662284.148
15196.537278.650
16193.021274.250
17190.040269.069
18186.867263.740
19184.352259.006
20181.750255.245
21179.378251.583
22177.011247.473
23174.455244.578
24172.294240.325
25170.277237.638
26168.435235.312
27166.069231.744
28164.321228.890
29162.134225.547
30160.298221.837
31158.698218.412
32156.771214.903
33154.337212.110
34152.651209.336
35150.789205.496
36148.842202.397
37147.111199.278
38145.770196.345
39143.966193.918
40142.278190.701
41140.861187.563
42139.495185.219
43137.756183.232
44135.846180.483
45134.497177.992
46132.993175.182
47131.696172.612
48130.433169.227
49129.085166.641
50127.543163.823
51126.106161.244
52124.734158.642
53123.170155.573
54121.840152.610
55120.709149.576
56119.309145.860
57117.985143.644
58116.576141.391
59115.245138.900
60113.940135.603
61112.593132.282
62111.094129.839
63109.260127.541
64108.102124.700
65106.887122.474
66105.337120.185
67104.048118.035
68102.433115.213
69101.095112.293
7099.478110.178
7197.833107.269
7296.400104.924
7394.720102.158
7493.01899.671
7591.32396.901
7689.44194.413
7787.71891.689
7886.23389.162
7984.64286.733
8082.97583.538
8181.03080.523
8279.47877.647
8378.07974.373
8476.35771.628
8574.83669.246
8673.01766.038
8771.20262.733
8869.52560.077
8967.10256.899
9065.00053.381
9162.84650.117
9259.27246.297
9355.99142.272
9452.81537.451
9549.78434.061
9645.99430.235
9741.60624.824
9835.90420.351
9929.33115.393


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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